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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 Week 1 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 1 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 1 · Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM ET · Final ATL 13, PIT 20

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers −3.5 at our first look, −6.5 at kickoff. 10 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Steelers linePittsburgh Steelers spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Pittsburgh.
−7−6−5−4−3Opening line−3.5ATL QB Tagovailoa ruled outThu 3:05 PM−2.5ATL LB Harris ruled outSun 11:50 AM−0.5Closing line−6.5
−7−6−5−4−3Opening line−3.5ATL QB Tagovailoa ruled outThu 3:05 PM−2.5ATL LB Harris ruled outSun 11:50 AM−0.5Closing line−6.5

Final: ATL 13, PIT 20. Steelers beat the closing number by 0.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3.5
ATL QB Tagovailoa ruled outThu Sep 10, 3:05 PM ET-2.5
ATL LB Harris ruled outSun Sep 13, 11:50 AM ET-0.5
Closing line−6.5
What moved the Steelers moneylinePittsburgh Steelers chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Pittsburgh.
62%64%66%68%70%72%74%Opening line62.3% (−165)ATL QB Tagovailoa ruled outThu 3:05 PM−234ATL LB Harris ruled outSun 11:50 AM−268Less than the spread implies−255Closing line71.8% (−255)
62%64%66%68%70%72%74%Opening line62.3% (−165)ATL QB Tagovailoa ruled outThu 3:05 PM−234ATL LB Harris ruled outSun 11:50 AM−268Less than the spread implies−255Closing line71.8% (−255)

Final: ATL 13, PIT 20. Steelers won at a 72% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line62.3% (−165)
ATL QB Tagovailoa ruled outThu Sep 10, 3:05 PM ET70.1% (−234)
ATL LB Harris ruled outSun Sep 13, 11:50 AM ET72.8% (−268)
Less than the spread implies71.8% (−255)
Closing line71.8% (−255)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 2:56 PM · PIT

Steelers Beat Falcons 20–13 Despite Rush Starting

Final: Atlanta Falcons 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 20. Cooper Rush started at quarterback for Atlanta in place of Tua Tagovailoa and went 12/22 for 143 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. The closing line was Steelers −6.5; Pittsburgh covered by 0.5.

PIT since this note: −6.5 → −6.5 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Atlanta Falcons

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Za'Darius Smith
Wed 7:59 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
EDGE Brandon Dorlus
Wed 7:59 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.4 Yes
QB Tua Tagovailoa
Thu 2:03 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 No
DT Da'Shawn Hand
Thu 4:06 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes
RT Jawaan Taylor
Thu 4:06 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes
LB Kendal Daniels
Thu 4:06 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
QB Tua Tagovailoa
Fri 1:54 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.6 No
LB Christian Harris
Sun 11:51 AM		 Active → Out+0.4 No

Pittsburgh Steelers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
CB Joey Porter Jr.
Wed 4:55 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 No
CB Joey Porter Jr.
Sun 11:51 AM		 Questionable → Out+0.5 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Steelers side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−6.5 −110−3001.33 71.8%—Sun 12:55 PM
DraftKings−6.5 −112−2981.34 71.8%—Sun 12:55 PM
FanDuel−6.5 −110−3001.33 72.1%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetMGM−6.5 −110−3001.33 72.4%—Sun 12:55 PM
Caesars−6.5 −109−3101.32 72.3%—Sun 12:55 PM
Fanatics−6.5 −105−3001.33 71.8%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetRivers−6.5 −110−2951.34 71.4%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetOnline−6.5 −110−3201.31 73.3%—Sun 12:55 PM
Bovada−6 −115−2901.34 71.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
LowVig−6.5 −103−3201.31 73.3%—Sun 12:55 PM
MyBookie−6.5 −110−2951.34 71.1%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetUS−6.5 −110−2901.34 71.7%—Sun 12:55 PM

Best for ATL: DraftKings +6.5 (−108)Best for PIT: Fanatics −6.5 (−105)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Falcons side is the mirror image.