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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 Week 1 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 1 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 1 · Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM ET · Final BAL 41, IND 23

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Colts +3.5 at our first look, +3 at kickoff. 3 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Colts lineIndianapolis Colts spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Indianapolis.
+3+4Opening line+3.5BAL EDGE Madubuike ruled outSun 12:55 PM−0.5Closing line+3
+3+4Opening line+3.5BAL EDGE Madubuike ruled outSun 12:55 PM−0.5Closing line+3

Final: BAL 41, IND 23. Colts missed the closing number by 15.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+3.5
BAL EDGE Madubuike ruled outSun Sep 13, 12:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line+3
What moved the Colts moneylineIndianapolis Colts chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Indianapolis.
38%40%42%44%Opening line38.3% (+161)BAL EDGE Madubuike ruled outSun 12:55 PM+131Less than the spread implies+146Closing line40.7% (+146)
38%40%42%44%Opening line38.3% (+161)BAL EDGE Madubuike ruled outSun 12:55 PM+131Less than the spread implies+146Closing line40.7% (+146)

Final: BAL 41, IND 23. Colts lost at a 41% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line38.3% (+161)
BAL EDGE Madubuike ruled outSun Sep 13, 12:55 PM ET43.3% (+131)
Less than the spread implies40.7% (+146)
Closing line40.7% (+146)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 2:56 PM · BAL

Ravens Beat Colts 41–23

Final: Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23. The closing line was Colts +3; Baltimore covered by 15.

BAL since this note: −3 → −3 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Baltimore Ravens

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Teddye Buchanan
Fri 4:39 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.1 No
EDGE Nnamdi Madubuike
Fri 4:39 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.3 No

Indianapolis Colts

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR Alec Pierce
Wed 4:55 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Colts side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3 −112+1362.36 40.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
DraftKings+3 −110+1362.36 40.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
FanDuel+3 −110+1362.36 40.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetMGM+3 −110+1352.35 40.9%—Sun 12:55 PM
Caesars+3 −112+1362.36 40.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
Fanatics+3 −115+1402.40 39.8%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetRivers+3 −113+1332.33 41.0%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetOnline+3 −115+1382.38 40.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
Bovada+2.5 +100+1302.30 42.0%—Sun 12:55 PM
LowVig+3 −115+1382.38 40.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
MyBookie+3 −120+1322.32 41.1%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetUS+3 −110+1342.34 41.3%—Sun 12:55 PM

Best for BAL: Fanatics −3 (−105)Best for IND: DraftKings +3 (−110)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Ravens side is the mirror image.