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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 Week 1 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 1 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 1 · Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM ET · Final BUF 36, HOU 31

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Texans +1 at our first look, +1 at kickoff. 2 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Texans lineHouston Texans spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Houston.

+1 no movement since tracking began Wed 8:15 PM ET.

What moved the Texans moneylineHouston Texans chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Houston.
48%49%Opening line48.0% (+108)Price-only move+105Closing line48.8% (+105)
48%49%Opening line48.0% (+108)Price-only move+105Closing line48.8% (+105)

Final: BUF 36, HOU 31. Texans lost at a 49% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line48.0% (+108)
Price-only move48.8% (+105)
Closing line48.8% (+105)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 2:57 PM · BUF

Bills Beat Texans 36–31

Final: Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31. The closing line was Texans +1; Buffalo covered by 4.

BUF since this note: −1 → −1 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Buffalo Bills

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
EDGE T.J. Sanders
Wed 8:19 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
EDGE T.J. Sanders
Sun 11:51 AM
Questionable → Out+0.2 No

Houston Texans

Nothing on the report.

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Texans side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+1 −113−1041.96 48.8%—Sun 12:55 PM
DraftKings+1.5 −115−1081.93 49.6%—Sun 12:55 PM
FanDuel+1.5 −118−1021.98 48.5%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetMGM+1 −110−1021.98 48.3%—Sun 12:55 PM
Caesars+1 −110+1002.00 48.0%—Sun 12:55 PM
Fanatics+1 −110−1051.95 48.9%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetRivers+1.5 −113+1002.00 47.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetOnline+1 −115−1051.95 48.9%—Sun 12:55 PM
Bovada+1 −115−1051.95 48.9%—Sun 12:55 PM
LowVig+1 −109−1051.95 48.9%—Sun 12:55 PM
MyBookie+1.5 −120−1041.96 48.6%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetUSPK +100—— ——Sun 12:55 PM

Best for BUF: BetMGM −1 (−108)Best for HOU: BetRivers +1.5 (−113)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Bills side is the mirror image.