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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 Week 1 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 1 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 1 · Sunday, September 13, 4:25 PM ET · Final GB 22, MIN 39

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Vikings −1.5 at our first look, −2.5 at kickoff. 7 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Vikings lineMinnesota Vikings spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Minnesota.
−3−2−1Opening line−1.5GB G Banks ruled outSun 4:20 PM−1Closing line−2.5
−3−2−1Opening line−1.5GB G Banks ruled outSun 4:20 PM−1Closing line−2.5

Final: GB 22, MIN 39. Vikings beat the closing number by 14.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−1.5
GB G Banks ruled outSun Sep 13, 4:20 PM ET-1
Closing line−2.5
What moved the Vikings moneylineMinnesota Vikings chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Minnesota.
53%54%55%56%Opening line52.8% (−112)GB G Banks ruled outSun 4:20 PM−123Price-only move−128Closing line56.2% (−128)
53%54%55%56%Opening line52.8% (−112)GB G Banks ruled outSun 4:20 PM−123Price-only move−128Closing line56.2% (−128)

Final: GB 22, MIN 39. Vikings won at a 56% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line52.8% (−112)
GB G Banks ruled outSun Sep 13, 4:20 PM ET55.1% (−123)
Price-only move56.2% (−128)
Closing line56.2% (−128)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 2:56 PM · MIN

Vikings Beat Packers 39–22 With Wentz at Quarterback

Final: Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39. Carson Wentz started at quarterback for Minnesota in place of Kyler Murray and went 12/19 for 133 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The closing line was Vikings −2.5; Minnesota covered by 14.5.

MIN since this note: −2.5 → −2.5 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Green Bay Packers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
G Aaron Banks
Wed 12:51 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
RT Zach Bako-Bewele
Wed 12:51 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes
EDGE Devonte Wyatt
Wed 9:00 PM
Active → Questionable+0.4 Yes
LB Barryn Sorrell
Wed 9:00 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
DT Javon Hargrave
Wed 9:00 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes
LT Jordan Morgan
Wed 9:00 PM
Active → Questionable+0.3 Yes
G Aaron Banks
Sun 3:17 PM
Questionable → Out+0.3 No

Minnesota Vikings

Nothing on the report.

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Vikings side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−2.5 −110−1401.71 56.2%—Sun 4:20 PM
DraftKings−2.5 −110−1421.70 56.3%—Sun 4:20 PM
FanDuel−1.5 −118−1341.75 55.1%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetMGM−2.5 −108−1401.71 56.2%—Sun 4:20 PM
Caesars−2.5 −107−1391.72 55.9%—Sun 4:20 PM
Fanatics−2.5 −110−1401.71 55.6%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetRivers−2 −110−1301.77 53.9%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetOnline−2.5 −110−1451.69 57.1%—Sun 4:20 PM
Bovada−2.5 −115−1451.69 57.1%—Sun 4:20 PM
LowVig−2.5 −105−1451.69 57.1%—Sun 4:20 PM
MyBookie−1.5 −110−1341.75 54.5%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetUS−1.5 −120−1401.71 56.2%—Sun 4:20 PM

Best for GB: DraftKings +2.5 (−110)Best for MIN: FanDuel −1.5 (−118)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Packers side is the mirror image.