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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 Week 1 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 1 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 1 · Sunday, September 13, 4:25 PM ET · Final MIA 13, LV 27

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders −3 at our first look, −3 at kickoff. 3 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Raiders lineLas Vegas Raiders spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Las Vegas.

−3 no movement since tracking began Wed 4:10 PM ET.

What moved the Raiders moneylineLas Vegas Raiders chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Las Vegas.
60%Opening line60.1% (−151)Closing line59.9% (−149)
60%Opening line60.1% (−151)Closing line59.9% (−149)

Final: MIA 13, LV 27. Raiders won at a 60% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line60.1% (−151)
Closing line59.9% (−149)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 2:56 PM · LV

Raiders Beat Dolphins 27–13

Final: Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27. The closing line was Raiders −3; Las Vegas covered by 11.

LV since this note: −3 → −3 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Miami Dolphins

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR Jalen Tolbert
Sun 3:17 PM
Active → Out+0.2 No

Las Vegas Raiders

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
TE Brock Bowers
Wed 4:14 PM
Active → Doubtful+0.2 No
TE Brock Bowers
Thu 6:28 PM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Raiders side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3 −110−1651.61 59.9%—Sun 4:20 PM
DraftKings−3 −110−1701.59 60.4%—Sun 4:20 PM
FanDuel−3 −112−1681.60 60.3%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetMGM−3 −108−1651.61 59.9%—Sun 4:20 PM
Caesars−3 −110−1641.61 59.8%—Sun 4:20 PM
Fanatics−3 −110−1651.61 59.4%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetRivers−3 −113−1591.63 58.5%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetOnline−3 −112−1621.62 59.9%—Sun 4:20 PM
Bovada−3 −110−1651.61 59.9%—Sun 4:20 PM
LowVig−3 −107−1621.62 59.9%—Sun 4:20 PM
MyBookie−3 −115−1681.60 59.7%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetUS−3 −115−1651.61 60.1%—Sun 4:20 PM

Best for MIA: FanDuel +3 (−108)Best for LV: BetMGM −3 (−108)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Dolphins side is the mirror image.