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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 Week 1 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 1 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 1 · Wednesday, September 9, 8:20 PM ET · Final NE 10, SEA 13

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks −3.5 at our first look, −3 at kickoff. 4 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Seahawks lineSeattle Seahawks spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Seattle.
−4−3Opening line−3.5SEA S Okada ruled outTue 5:05 PM+0.5Closing line−3
−4−3Opening line−3.5SEA S Okada ruled outTue 5:05 PM+0.5Closing line−3

Final: NE 10, SEA 13. Seahawks landed on the closing number.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3.5
SEA S Okada ruled outTue Sep 8, 5:05 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−3
What moved the Seahawks moneylineSeattle Seahawks chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Seattle.
58%60%62%Opening line62.0% (−163)SEA S Okada ruled outTue 5:05 PM−133Less than the spread implies−158Closing line61.2% (−158)
58%60%62%Opening line62.0% (−163)SEA S Okada ruled outTue 5:05 PM−133Less than the spread implies−158Closing line61.2% (−158)

Final: NE 10, SEA 13. Seahawks won at a 61% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line62.0% (−163)
SEA S Okada ruled outTue Sep 8, 5:05 PM ET57.0% (−133)
Less than the spread implies61.2% (−158)
Closing line61.2% (−158)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 2:56 PM · SEA

Seahawks Beat Patriots 13–10 With Lock at Quarterback

Final: New England Patriots 10, Seattle Seahawks 13. Drew Lock started at quarterback for Seattle in place of Sam Darnold and went 16/22 for 187 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions.

SEA since this note: −3 → −3 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

New England Patriots

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
EDGE Christian Barmore
Sun 8:11 PM
Active → Questionable+0.4 Yes

Seattle Seahawks

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
S Ty Okada
Sun 8:32 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
G Anthony Bradford
Sun 8:32 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
S Ty Okada
Tue 5:06 PM
Questionable → Out+0.3 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Seahawks side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3 −110−1751.57 61.2%—Wed 8:15 PM
DraftKings−3 −118−1661.60 60.0%—Wed 8:15 PM
FanDuel−3.5 −102−1761.57 61.3%—Wed 8:15 PM
BetMGM−3 −110−1751.57 61.4%—Wed 8:15 PM
Caesars−3 −115−1761.57 61.3%—Wed 8:15 PM
Fanatics−3 −115−1751.57 60.9%—Wed 8:15 PM
BetRivers−3 −118−1821.55 61.7%—Wed 8:15 PM
BetOnline−3 −108−1711.58 61.2%—Wed 8:15 PM
Bovada−3 −120−1751.57 61.4%—Wed 8:15 PM
LowVig−3 −108−1711.58 61.2%—Wed 8:15 PM
MyBookie−3.5 +108−1771.56 60.8%—Wed 8:15 PM
BetUS−3 −110−1651.61 60.1%—Wed 8:15 PM

Best for NE: FanDuel +3.5 (−120)Best for SEA: BetMGM −3 (−110)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Patriots side is the mirror image.