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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 Week 1 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 1 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 1 · Thursday, September 10, 8:35 PM ET · Final SF 27, LA 7

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

Rams −3.5 at our first look, −3.5 at kickoff. 6 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Rams lineLos Angeles Rams spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Los Angeles.

−3.5 no movement since tracking began Tue 4:20 PM ET.

What moved the Rams moneylineLos Angeles Rams chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Los Angeles.
64%Opening line64.2% (−179)Closing line64.0% (−178)
64%Opening line64.2% (−179)Closing line64.0% (−178)

Final: SF 27, LA 7. Rams lost at a 64% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line64.2% (−179)
Closing line64.0% (−178)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 2:57 PM · SF

49ers Beat Rams 27–7

Final: San Francisco 49ers 27, Los Angeles Rams 7. San Francisco won outright as the underdog; the closing line was Rams −3.5.

SF since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

San Francisco 49ers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Dre Greenlaw
Tue 8:30 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
DT Alfred Collins
Tue 8:30 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 No
DT Alfred Collins
Tue 11:14 PM
Questionable → Out+0.3 No
DT Alfred Collins
Thu 5:27 PM
Out → IR0.0 No

Los Angeles Rams

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
EDGE Aaron Donald
Tue 4:25 PM
Active → Out+1.0 No
CB Jaylen Watson
Tue 7:28 PM
Active → Questionable+0.3 Yes

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Rams side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3.5 −112−2001.50 64.0%—Thu 8:30 PM
DraftKings−3.5 −115−2181.46 65.7%—Thu 8:30 PM
FanDuel−3.5 −112−1981.51 63.9%—Thu 8:30 PM
BetMGM−3.5 −102−2001.50 63.9%—Thu 8:30 PM
Caesars−3.5 −111−2051.49 64.4%—Thu 8:30 PM
Fanatics−3.5 −115−2001.50 63.9%—Thu 8:30 PM
BetRivers−3.5 −113−2051.49 64.0%—Thu 8:30 PM
BetOnline−4 −110−1971.51 64.3%—Thu 8:30 PM
Bovada−3.5 −115−1951.51 63.7%—Thu 8:30 PM
LowVig−3.5 −109−1971.51 64.3%—Thu 8:30 PM
MyBookie−3.5 −110−2061.49 64.2%—Thu 8:30 PM
BetUS−3.5 −115−1951.51 63.8%—Thu 8:30 PM

Best for SF: DraftKings +3.5 (−105)Best for LA: BetMGM −3.5 (−102)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The 49ers side is the mirror image.