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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 Week 1 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 1 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 1 · Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM ET · Final TB 27, CIN 33

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals −3.5 at our first look, −3.5 at kickoff. 4 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Bengals lineCincinnati Bengals spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Cincinnati.

−3.5 no movement since tracking began Wed 9:40 PM ET.

What moved the Bengals moneylineCincinnati Bengals chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Cincinnati.
64%65%Opening line64.5% (−182)Price-only move−177Closing line63.9% (−177)
64%65%Opening line64.5% (−182)Price-only move−177Closing line63.9% (−177)

Final: TB 27, CIN 33. Bengals won at a 64% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line64.5% (−182)
Price-only move63.9% (−177)
Closing line63.9% (−177)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 2:56 PM · CIN

Bengals Beat Buccaneers 33–27

Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33. The closing line was Bengals −3.5; Cincinnati covered by 2.5.

CIN since this note: −3.5 → −3.5 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Christian Rozeboom
Wed 9:41 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
WR Jalen McMillan
Fri 1:14 PM
Questionable → Doubtful+0.4 No
WR Jalen McMillan
Sun 11:51 AM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No

Cincinnati Bengals

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
CB DJ Turner II
Thu 4:47 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Bengals side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3.5 −110−2001.50 63.9%—Sun 12:55 PM
DraftKings−3.5 −118−2051.49 64.5%—Sun 12:55 PM
FanDuel−3.5 −112−1901.53 63.0%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetMGM−3.5 −105−1901.53 63.0%—Sun 12:55 PM
Caesars−3.5 −111−2051.49 64.5%—Sun 12:55 PM
Fanatics−3.5 −110−2001.50 63.9%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetRivers−4 −109−2101.48 64.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetOnline−3.5 −104−1921.52 63.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
Bovada−3.5 −115−2101.48 65.1%—Sun 12:55 PM
LowVig−4 +105−1921.52 63.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
MyBookie−3.5 −110−2141.47 64.9%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetUS−3.5 −110−1901.53 63.3%—Sun 12:55 PM

Best for TB: BetRivers +4 (−112)Best for CIN: BetMGM −3.5 (−105)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Buccaneers side is the mirror image.