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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 Week 1 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 1 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 1 · Sunday, September 13, 4:25 PM ET · Final WAS 22, PHI 24

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles −5 at our first look, −6 at kickoff. 4 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Eagles linePhiladelphia Eagles spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Philadelphia.
−6−5Opening line−5WAS DT Payne questionableThu 6:05 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsSun 4:20 PM−0.5Closing line−6
−6−5Opening line−5WAS DT Payne questionableThu 6:05 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsSun 4:20 PM−0.5Closing line−6

Final: WAS 22, PHI 24. Eagles missed the closing number by 4.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−5
WAS DT Payne questionableThu Sep 10, 6:05 PM ET-0.5
Market move, no reported newsSun Sep 13, 4:20 PM ET-0.5
Closing line−6
What moved the Eagles moneylinePhiladelphia Eagles chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Philadelphia.
67%68%69%70%71%Opening line67.3% (−206)WAS DT Payne questionableThu 6:05 PM−225Market move, no reported newsSun 4:20 PM−245Less than the spread implies−231Closing line69.8% (−231)
67%68%69%70%71%Opening line67.3% (−206)WAS DT Payne questionableThu 6:05 PM−225Market move, no reported newsSun 4:20 PM−245Less than the spread implies−231Closing line69.8% (−231)

Final: WAS 22, PHI 24. Eagles won at a 70% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line67.3% (−206)
WAS DT Payne questionableThu Sep 10, 6:05 PM ET69.2% (−225)
Market move, no reported newsSun Sep 13, 4:20 PM ET71.0% (−245)
Less than the spread implies69.8% (−231)
Closing line69.8% (−231)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 2:56 PM · PHI

Eagles Beat Commanders 24–22

Final: Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24. The closing line was Eagles −6; Washington covered by 4.

PHI since this note: −6 → −6 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Washington Commanders

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB K'Lavon Chaisson
Wed 9:41 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
DT Daron Payne
Thu 6:08 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes

Philadelphia Eagles

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Jonathan Greenard
Mon 5:58 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.3 No
LB Jonathan Greenard
Fri 5:20 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.3 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Eagles side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−6 −110−2651.38 69.8%—Sun 4:20 PM
DraftKings−6 −110−2451.41 68.1%—Sun 4:20 PM
FanDuel−5.5 −114−2601.38 69.5%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetMGM−6 −102−2751.36 70.1%—Sun 4:20 PM
Caesars−6 −108−2601.38 69.1%—Sun 4:20 PM
Fanatics−5.5 −115−2751.36 70.1%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetRivers−6 −107−2751.36 69.8%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetOnline−6 −114−2651.38 69.8%—Sun 4:20 PM
Bovada−5.5 −115−2701.37 70.0%—Sun 4:20 PM
LowVig−6 −107−2651.38 69.8%—Sun 4:20 PM
MyBookie−5.5 −110−2551.39 68.4%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetUS−6 −110−2481.40 68.7%—Sun 4:20 PM

Best for WAS: BetMGM +6 (−108)Best for PHI: FanDuel −5.5 (−114)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Commanders side is the mirror image.