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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 Week 2 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 2 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 2 · Sunday, September 20, 1:00 PM ET · Final CIN 20, HOU 6

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Texans −2.5 at our first look, −2.5 at kickoff. 10 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Texans lineHouston Texans spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Houston.
−3−2Opening line−2.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:00 PM−0.5HOU LB To'oTo'o to injured reserveTue 4:35 PM+0.5Closing line−2.5
−3−2Opening line−2.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:00 PM−0.5HOU LB To'oTo'o to injured reserveTue 4:35 PM+0.5Closing line−2.5

Final: CIN 20, HOU 6. Texans missed the closing number by 16.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−2.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 1:00 PM ET-0.5
HOU LB To'oTo'o to injured reserveTue Sep 15, 4:35 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−2.5
What moved the Texans moneylineHouston Texans chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Houston.
56%57%58%Opening line56.0% (−127)Market move, no reported newsMon 1:00 PM−135HOU LB To'oTo'o to injured reserveTue 4:35 PM−127Price-only move−138Closing line57.9% (−138)
56%57%58%Opening line56.0% (−127)Market move, no reported newsMon 1:00 PM−135HOU LB To'oTo'o to injured reserveTue 4:35 PM−127Price-only move−138Closing line57.9% (−138)

Final: CIN 20, HOU 6. Texans lost at a 58% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line56.0% (−127)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 1:00 PM ET57.5% (−135)
HOU LB To'oTo'o to injured reserveTue Sep 15, 4:35 PM ET56.0% (−127)
Price-only move57.9% (−138)
Closing line57.9% (−138)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 12:18 AM · CIN

Bengals Beat Texans 20–6

Final: Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6. Cincinnati won outright as the underdog; the closing line was Texans −2.5.

CIN since this note: +2.5 → +2.5 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Cincinnati Bengals

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
QB Joe Burrow
Wed 4:03 PM
Active → Questionable+0.8 Yes

Houston Texans

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Jake Hummel
Sun 3:57 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
LB Henry To'oTo'o
Sun 5:39 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
LB Jake Hummel
Mon 1:01 PM
Questionable → Doubtful+0.2 No
LB Henry To'oTo'o
Tue 4:35 PM
Questionable → IR+0.3 No
WR Nico Collins
Wed 6:26 PM
Active → Questionable+0.3 No
G Ed Ingram
Thu 6:58 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
WR Nico Collins
Fri 4:27 PM
Questionable → Out+0.5 No
LB Jake Hummel
Fri 4:47 PM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No
G Ed Ingram
Fri 4:47 PM
Questionable → Out+0.3 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Texans side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−2.5 −114−1501.67 57.9%—Sun 12:55 PM
DraftKings−3 −102−1481.68 57.2%—Sun 12:55 PM
FanDuel−2.5 −120−1541.65 58.2%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetMGM−3 −102−1501.67 57.4%—Sun 12:55 PM
Caesars−2.5 −115−1521.66 57.9%—Sun 12:55 PM
Fanatics−2.5 −120−1501.67 57.4%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetRivers−2.5 −114−1481.68 56.8%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetOnline−2.5 −120−1501.67 58.0%—Sun 12:55 PM
Bovada−3 +105—— ——Sun 12:55 PM
LowVig−2.5 −116−1501.67 58.0%—Sun 12:55 PM
MyBookie−3 +100−1611.62 59.4%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetUS−3 +100−1551.65 58.7%—Sun 12:55 PM

Best for CIN: DraftKings +3 (−118)Best for HOU: BetRivers −2.5 (−114)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Bengals side is the mirror image.