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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 Week 2 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 2 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 2 · Sunday, September 20, 1:00 PM ET · Final CLE 23, TB 19

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buccaneers −8.5 at our first look, −8 at kickoff. 6 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Buccaneers lineTampa Bay Buccaneers spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Tampa Bay.
−9−8Opening line−8.5TB WR McMillan questionableSun 12:55 PM+0.5Closing line−8
−9−8Opening line−8.5TB WR McMillan questionableSun 12:55 PM+0.5Closing line−8

Final: CLE 23, TB 19. Buccaneers missed the closing number by 12.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−8.5
TB WR McMillan questionableSun Sep 20, 12:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−8
What moved the Buccaneers moneylineTampa Bay Buccaneers chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Tampa Bay.
76%77%78%Opening line77.6% (−346)TB WR McMillan questionableSun 12:55 PM−320Less than the spread implies−342Closing line77.4% (−342)
76%77%78%Opening line77.6% (−346)TB WR McMillan questionableSun 12:55 PM−320Less than the spread implies−342Closing line77.4% (−342)

Final: CLE 23, TB 19. Buccaneers lost at a 77% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line77.6% (−346)
TB WR McMillan questionableSun Sep 20, 12:55 PM ET76.2% (−320)
Less than the spread implies77.4% (−342)
Closing line77.4% (−342)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 12:18 AM · CLE

Browns Beat Buccaneers 23–19

Final: Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19. Cleveland won outright as the underdog; the closing line was Buccaneers −8.

CLE since this note: +8 → +8 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Cleveland Browns

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
G Teven Jenkins
Mon 11:19 AM
Out → Questionable−0.1 No
C Elgton Jenkins
Wed 6:06 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
DT Maliek Collins
Wed 6:06 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
CB Tyson Campbell
Thu 4:15 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
G Teven Jenkins
Fri 2:03 PM
Questionable → Out+0.1 No

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR Jalen McMillan
Fri 4:27 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Buccaneers side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−8 −108−4221.24 77.4%—Sun 12:55 PM
DraftKings−8.5 −105−4251.24 77.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
FanDuel−8.5 +100−4301.23 78.1%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetMGM−8 −108−4251.24 77.3%—Sun 12:55 PM
Caesars−8 −109−4201.24 77.4%—Sun 12:55 PM
Fanatics−7.5 −115−4251.24 77.5%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetRivers−8 −112−4351.23 77.3%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetOnline−9 −101−4121.24 77.4%—Sun 12:55 PM
Bovada−7.5 −115—— ——Sun 12:55 PM
LowVig−9 +107−4121.24 77.4%—Sun 12:55 PM
MyBookie−8 −110−4101.24 77.2%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetUS−9 +100−4121.24 77.5%—Sun 12:55 PM

Best for CLE: DraftKings +8.5 (−115)Best for TB: Fanatics −7.5 (−115)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Browns side is the mirror image.