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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 Week 2 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 2 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 2 · Thursday, September 17, 8:15 PM ET · Final DET 31, BUF 41

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

Bills −4.5 at our first look, −5.5 at kickoff. 11 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Bills lineBuffalo Bills spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Buffalo.
−6−5−4Opening line−4.5DET RT Miller ruled outWed 3:40 PM−0.5DET CB Abney II ruled outThu 7:15 PM−0.5Closing line−5.5
−6−5−4Opening line−4.5DET RT Miller ruled outWed 3:40 PM−0.5DET CB Abney II ruled outThu 7:15 PM−0.5Closing line−5.5

Final: DET 31, BUF 41. Bills beat the closing number by 4.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−4.5
DET RT Miller ruled outWed Sep 16, 3:40 PM ET-0.5
DET CB Abney II ruled outThu Sep 17, 7:15 PM ET-0.5
Closing line−5.5
What moved the Bills moneylineBuffalo Bills chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Buffalo.
64%65%66%67%68%69%Opening line64.6% (−182)DET RT Miller ruled outWed 3:40 PM−199DET CB Abney II ruled outThu 7:15 PM−216Closing line68.2% (−214)
64%65%66%67%68%69%Opening line64.6% (−182)DET RT Miller ruled outWed 3:40 PM−199DET CB Abney II ruled outThu 7:15 PM−216Closing line68.2% (−214)

Final: DET 31, BUF 41. Bills won at a 68% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line64.6% (−182)
DET RT Miller ruled outWed Sep 16, 3:40 PM ET66.5% (−199)
DET CB Abney II ruled outThu Sep 17, 7:15 PM ET68.4% (−216)
Closing line68.2% (−214)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 2:57 PM · BUF

Bills Beat Lions 41–31

Final: Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41. The closing line was Bills −5.5; Buffalo covered by 4.5.

BUF since this note: −5.5 → −5.5 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Detroit Lions

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
G Christian Mahogany
Mon 12:40 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 No
RT Blake Miller
Mon 4:25 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 No
C Juice Scruggs
Mon 4:25 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 Yes
CB D.J. Reed
Tue 5:16 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 Yes
G Christian Mahogany
Wed 3:43 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.3 No
RT Blake Miller
Wed 3:43 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.3 No
CB Keith Abney II
Thu 7:18 PM		 Active → Out+0.4 No

Buffalo Bills

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Terrel Bernard
Mon 4:25 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
S Cole Bishop
Tue 5:36 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
EDGE Ed Oliver
Thu 7:18 PM		 Active → Out+1.0 No
EDGE T.J. Sanders
Thu 7:18 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.6 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Bills side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−5.5 −109−2451.41 68.2%—Thu 8:10 PM
DraftKings−5.5 −105−2381.42 67.5%—Thu 8:10 PM
FanDuel−5.5 −105−2401.42 67.8%—Thu 8:10 PM
BetMGM−5 −108−2351.43 67.8%—Thu 8:10 PM
Caesars−5.5 −106−2451.41 68.4%—Thu 8:10 PM
Fanatics−5 −110−2451.41 68.1%—Thu 8:10 PM
BetRivers−5.5 −110−2451.41 67.3%—Thu 8:10 PM
BetOnline−5.5 −110−2551.39 69.1%—Thu 8:10 PM
Bovada−5 −110−2451.41 68.4%—Thu 8:10 PM
LowVig−5.5 −101−2571.39 69.2%—Thu 8:10 PM
MyBookie−4.5 −110−2281.44 66.2%—Wed 4:45 PM
BetUS−5.5 −110−2501.40 68.9%—Thu 8:10 PM

Best for DET: BetRivers +5.5 (−110)Best for BUF: BetMGM −5 (−108)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Lions side is the mirror image.