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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 Week 2 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 2 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 2 · Sunday, September 20, 1:00 PM ET · Final GB 20, NYJ 17

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets

Jets +5.5 at our first look, +3 at kickoff. 16 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Jets lineNew York Jets spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against New York.
+3+4+5+6Opening line+5.5GB CB Cisse questionableSun 7:40 PM−1NYJ K Grupe upgradedMon 11:35 AM−1GB EDGE Wyatt questionableFri 10:55 AM−0.5Closing line+3
+3+4+5+6Opening line+5.5GB CB Cisse questionableSun 7:40 PM−1NYJ K Grupe upgradedMon 11:35 AM−1GB EDGE Wyatt questionableFri 10:55 AM−0.5Closing line+3

Final: GB 20, NYJ 17. Jets landed on the closing number.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+5.5
GB CB Cisse questionableSun Sep 13, 7:40 PM ET-1
NYJ K Grupe upgradedMon Sep 14, 11:35 AM ET-1
GB EDGE Wyatt questionableFri Sep 18, 10:55 AM ET-0.5
Closing line+3
What moved the Jets moneylineNew York Jets chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward New York.
32%34%36%38%40%42%44%Opening line31.9% (+213)GB CB Cisse questionableSun 7:40 PM+180NYJ K Grupe upgradedMon 11:35 AM+165GB EDGE Wyatt questionableFri 10:55 AM+134Less than the spread implies+151Closing line39.8% (+151)
32%34%36%38%40%42%44%Opening line31.9% (+213)GB CB Cisse questionableSun 7:40 PM+180NYJ K Grupe upgradedMon 11:35 AM+165GB EDGE Wyatt questionableFri 10:55 AM+134Less than the spread implies+151Closing line39.8% (+151)

Final: GB 20, NYJ 17. Jets lost at a 40% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line31.9% (+213)
GB CB Cisse questionableSun Sep 13, 7:40 PM ET35.7% (+180)
NYJ K Grupe upgradedMon Sep 14, 11:35 AM ET37.8% (+165)
GB EDGE Wyatt questionableFri Sep 18, 10:55 AM ET42.8% (+134)
Less than the spread implies39.8% (+151)
Closing line39.8% (+151)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 12:18 AM · GB

Packers Beat Jets 20–17

Final: Green Bay Packers 20, New York Jets 17.

GB since this note: −3 → −3 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Green Bay Packers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
CB Brandon Cisse
Sun 7:41 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
G Aaron Banks
Mon 11:40 AM
Out → Questionable−0.1 Yes
LB Lukas Van Ness
Wed 5:25 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
EDGE Devonte Wyatt
Wed 5:25 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes
LB Barryn Sorrell
Wed 5:25 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
DT Javon Hargrave
Wed 5:25 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
RT Zach Bako-Bewele
Wed 5:25 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
DT Javon Hargrave
Fri 4:06 PM
Questionable → Doubtful+0.1 No
DT Javon Hargrave
Sat 2:57 PM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No

New York Jets

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
S Minkah Fitzpatrick
Sun 1:54 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
K Blake Grupe
Mon 11:40 AM
Out → Returning−0.2 No
S Minkah Fitzpatrick
Tue 3:54 PM
Questionable → Doubtful+0.1 No
LB Jamien Sherwood
Wed 5:25 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
EDGE Will McDonald IV
Thu 5:56 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes
S Minkah Fitzpatrick
Fri 10:59 AM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No
K Blake Grupe
Sun 12:43 PM
Active → Out+0.2 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Jets side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3 −105+1422.42 39.8%—Sun 12:55 PM
DraftKings+3.5 −112+1542.54 37.8%—Sun 12:55 PM
FanDuel+3.5 −122+1422.42 39.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetMGM+3 −102+1402.40 39.6%—Sun 12:55 PM
Caesars+3 −103+1422.42 39.6%—Sun 12:55 PM
Fanatics+3 −105+1402.40 39.8%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetRivers+3.5 −117+1502.50 38.1%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetOnline+3 −105+1422.42 40.1%—Sun 12:55 PM
Bovada+3 −105+1352.35 40.9%—Sun 12:55 PM
LowVig+3 −103+1422.42 40.1%—Sun 12:55 PM
MyBookie+3 −110+1402.40 40.1%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetUS+3 −105+1382.38 40.6%—Sun 12:55 PM

Best for GB: Fanatics −3 (−115)Best for NYJ: DraftKings +3.5 (−112)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Packers side is the mirror image.