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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 Week 2 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 2 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 2 · Sunday, September 20, 8:20 PM ET · Final IND 30, KC 33

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs −6.5 at our first look, −5.5 at kickoff. 7 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Chiefs lineKansas City Chiefs spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Kansas City.
−7−6−5Opening line−6.5Market move, no reported newsSun 8:15 PM+1Closing line−5.5
−7−6−5Opening line−6.5Market move, no reported newsSun 8:15 PM+1Closing line−5.5

Final: IND 30, KC 33. Chiefs missed the closing number by 2.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−6.5
Market move, no reported newsSun Sep 20, 8:15 PM ET+1
Closing line−5.5
What moved the Chiefs moneylineKansas City Chiefs chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Kansas City.
66%67%68%69%70%71%Opening line71.2% (−247)Market move, no reported newsSun 8:15 PM−200Less than the spread implies−244Closing line70.9% (−244)
66%67%68%69%70%71%Opening line71.2% (−247)Market move, no reported newsSun 8:15 PM−200Less than the spread implies−244Closing line70.9% (−244)

Final: IND 30, KC 33. Chiefs won at a 71% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line71.2% (−247)
Market move, no reported newsSun Sep 20, 8:15 PM ET66.7% (−200)
Less than the spread implies70.9% (−244)
Closing line70.9% (−244)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 12:18 AM · KC

Chiefs Beat Colts 33–30

Final: Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33. The closing line was Chiefs −5.75; Indianapolis covered by 2.75.

KC since this note: −5.5 → −5.5 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Indianapolis Colts

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR Alec Pierce
Sun 8:01 PM
Active → Questionable+0.4 Yes
WR Alec Pierce
Thu 3:54 PM
Active → Questionable+0.4 Yes

Kansas City Chiefs

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LT Josh Simmons
Tue 11:48 AM
Out → Questionable−0.5 No
S Chamarri Conner
Tue 11:48 AM
Out → Questionable−0.3 No
CB Mansoor Delane
Tue 11:48 AM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
DT Chris Jones
Wed 4:44 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes
CB Mansoor Delane
Fri 4:47 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Chiefs side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−5.5 −109−2801.36 70.9%—Sun 8:15 PM
DraftKings−6 −108−2651.38 69.6%—Sun 8:15 PM
FanDuel−6.5 +100−2751.36 70.4%—Sun 8:15 PM
BetMGM— —−2851.35 71.0%—Sun 8:15 PM
Caesars−5.5 −113−2751.36 70.4%—Sun 8:15 PM
Fanatics−6 −105−2851.35 71.0%—Sun 8:15 PM
BetRivers−6 −114−3151.32 72.1%—Sun 8:15 PM
BetOnline−5.5 −110−2801.36 70.9%—Sun 8:15 PM
Bovada−5.5 −115−2851.35 71.3%—Sun 8:15 PM
LowVig−5.5 −107−2801.36 70.9%—Sun 8:15 PM
MyBookie−6 −105−2751.36 70.6%—Sun 8:15 PM
BetUS−5.5 −110−2801.36 71.2%—Sun 8:15 PM

Best for IND: FanDuel +6.5 (−122)Best for KC: Caesars −5.5 (−113)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Colts side is the mirror image.