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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 Week 2 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 2 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 2 · Sunday, September 20, 4:25 PM ET · Final MIA 13, SF 35

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers

49ers −13 at our first look, −13 at kickoff. 7 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the 49ers lineSan Francisco 49ers spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against San Francisco.
−14−13Opening line−13Reaction to last week's gameMon 12:40 PM−0.5SF EDGE White questionableFri 2:00 PM+0.5Closing line−13
−14−13Opening line−13Reaction to last week's gameMon 12:40 PM−0.5SF EDGE White questionableFri 2:00 PM+0.5Closing line−13

Final: MIA 13, SF 35. 49ers beat the closing number by 9.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−13
Reaction to last week's gameMon Sep 14, 12:40 PM ET-0.5
SF EDGE White questionableFri Sep 18, 2:00 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−13
What moved the 49ers moneylineSan Francisco 49ers chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward San Francisco.
86%87%88%Opening line86.6% (−646)Reaction to last week's gameMon 12:40 PM−675SF EDGE White questionableFri 2:00 PM−646Price-only move−720Closing line87.8% (−720)
86%87%88%Opening line86.6% (−646)Reaction to last week's gameMon 12:40 PM−675SF EDGE White questionableFri 2:00 PM−646Price-only move−720Closing line87.8% (−720)

Final: MIA 13, SF 35. 49ers won at a 88% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line86.6% (−646)
Reaction to last week's gameMon Sep 14, 12:40 PM ET87.1% (−675)
SF EDGE White questionableFri Sep 18, 2:00 PM ET86.6% (−646)
Price-only move87.8% (−720)
Closing line87.8% (−720)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 2:57 PM · SF

49ers Beat Dolphins 35–13

Final: Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35. The closing line was 49ers −13; San Francisco covered by 9.

SF since this note: −13 → −13 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Miami Dolphins

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR Jalen Tolbert
Mon 11:40 AM		 Out → Returning−0.2 No
EDGE Chop Robinson
Wed 7:27 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 No
EDGE Chop Robinson
Fri 2:03 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.3 No
WR Jalen Tolbert
Sun 3:27 PM		 Active → Out+0.2 No

San Francisco 49ers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
EDGE Keion White
Wed 7:07 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes
K Eddy Pineiro
Wed 7:07 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
TE George Kittle
Wed 7:07 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · 49ers side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−13 −108−10501.10 87.8%—Sun 4:20 PM
DraftKings−12.5 −110−8501.12 85.8%—Sun 4:20 PM
FanDuel−13.5 −105−11001.09 88.0%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetMGM−13 −108−10001.10 87.9%—Sun 4:20 PM
Caesars−12.5 −117−12001.08 85.7%—Sun 4:20 PM
Fanatics−13 −110−10001.10 87.2%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetRivers−13 −109−9101.11 85.9%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetOnline−13 −105−10501.10 87.8%—Sun 4:20 PM
Bovada−13 −115−12001.08 88.1%—Sun 4:20 PM
LowVig−13 −103−10501.10 87.8%—Sun 4:20 PM
MyBookie−13.5 +100−11331.09 88.4%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetUS−13 −105−9501.11 86.9%—Sun 4:20 PM

Best for MIA: FanDuel +13.5 (−115)Best for SF: DraftKings −12.5 (−110)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Dolphins side is the mirror image.