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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 Week 2 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 2 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 2 · Sunday, September 20, 1:00 PM ET · Final MIN 9, CHI 3

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Bears −3 at our first look, −4.5 at kickoff. 8 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Bears lineChicago Bears spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Chicago.
−6−5−4−3Opening line−3MIN QB Murray ruled outMon 11:35 AM−2.5CHI RB Swift questionableWed 4:20 PM+1Closing line−4.5
−6−5−4−3Opening line−3MIN QB Murray ruled outMon 11:35 AM−2.5CHI RB Swift questionableWed 4:20 PM+1Closing line−4.5

Final: MIN 9, CHI 3. Bears missed the closing number by 10.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3
MIN QB Murray ruled outMon Sep 14, 11:35 AM ET-2.5
CHI RB Swift questionableWed Sep 16, 4:20 PM ET+1
Closing line−4.5
What moved the Bears moneylineChicago Bears chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Chicago.
58%60%62%64%66%68%70%Opening line59.3% (−146)MIN QB Murray ruled outMon 11:35 AM−237CHI RB Swift questionableWed 4:20 PM−199Less than the spread implies−192Closing line65.8% (−192)
58%60%62%64%66%68%70%Opening line59.3% (−146)MIN QB Murray ruled outMon 11:35 AM−237CHI RB Swift questionableWed 4:20 PM−199Less than the spread implies−192Closing line65.8% (−192)

Final: MIN 9, CHI 3. Bears lost at a 66% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line59.3% (−146)
MIN QB Murray ruled outMon Sep 14, 11:35 AM ET70.3% (−237)
CHI RB Swift questionableWed Sep 16, 4:20 PM ET66.5% (−199)
Less than the spread implies65.8% (−192)
Closing line65.8% (−192)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 12:18 AM · MIN

Vikings Beat Bears 9–3 With Wentz at Quarterback

Final: Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3. Carson Wentz started at quarterback for Minnesota in place of Kyler Murray and went 11/20 for 143 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Minnesota won outright as the underdog; the closing line was Bears −4.5.

MIN since this note: +4.5 → +4.5 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Minnesota Vikings

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
QB Kyler Murray
Sun 5:19 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 No
LB Andrew Van Ginkel
Wed 5:45 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
RT Brian O'Neill
Wed 5:45 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes
LB Blake Cashman
Wed 6:06 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
QB Kyler Murray
Fri 3:05 PM
Questionable → Out+0.2 No

Chicago Bears

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
RT Darnell Wright
Wed 4:23 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes
RB D'Andre Swift
Wed 4:23 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo
Wed 4:44 PM
Active → Questionable+0.4 Yes

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Bears side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−4.5 −110−2181.46 65.8%—Sun 12:55 PM
DraftKings−4.5 −112−2181.46 65.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
FanDuel−4.5 −110−2151.47 65.6%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetMGM−4.5 −105−2101.48 65.5%—Sun 12:55 PM
Caesars−4.5 −109−2181.46 66.0%—Sun 12:55 PM
Fanatics−4.5 −110−2201.45 65.8%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetRivers−4.5 −113−2201.45 65.4%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetOnline−4.5 −106−2181.46 66.1%—Sun 12:55 PM
Bovada−4.5 −110−2201.45 65.8%—Sun 12:55 PM
LowVig−4.5 −101−2181.46 66.1%—Sun 12:55 PM
MyBookie−4.5 −110−2141.47 65.5%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetUS−4.5 −105−2201.45 66.2%—Sun 12:55 PM

Best for MIN: BetMGM +4.5 (−105)Best for CHI: BetMGM −4.5 (−105)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Vikings side is the mirror image.