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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 Week 2 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 2 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 2 · Sunday, September 20, 1:00 PM ET · Final PIT 3, NE 20

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Patriots −4.5 at our first look, −4.5 at kickoff. 9 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Patriots lineNew England Patriots spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against New England.
−6−5−4Opening line−4.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:35 AM−1NE LB Spillane questionableWed 4:40 PM+0.5NE CB Davis III ruled outSun 12:55 PM+0.5Closing line−4.5
−6−5−4Opening line−4.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:35 AM−1NE LB Spillane questionableWed 4:40 PM+0.5NE CB Davis III ruled outSun 12:55 PM+0.5Closing line−4.5

Final: PIT 3, NE 20. Patriots beat the closing number by 12.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−4.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 11:35 AM ET-1
NE LB Spillane questionableWed Sep 16, 4:40 PM ET+0.5
NE CB Davis III ruled outSun Sep 20, 12:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−4.5
What moved the Patriots moneylineNew England Patriots chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward New England.
64%65%66%67%68%69%Opening line64.6% (−182)Market move, no reported newsMon 11:35 AM−216NE LB Spillane questionableWed 4:40 PM−199NE CB Davis III ruled outSun 12:55 PM−182Price-only move−198Closing line66.4% (−198)
64%65%66%67%68%69%Opening line64.6% (−182)Market move, no reported newsMon 11:35 AM−216NE LB Spillane questionableWed 4:40 PM−199NE CB Davis III ruled outSun 12:55 PM−182Price-only move−198Closing line66.4% (−198)

Final: PIT 3, NE 20. Patriots won at a 66% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line64.6% (−182)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 11:35 AM ET68.4% (−216)
NE LB Spillane questionableWed Sep 16, 4:40 PM ET66.5% (−199)
NE CB Davis III ruled outSun Sep 20, 12:55 PM ET64.6% (−182)
Price-only move66.4% (−198)
Closing line66.4% (−198)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 12:18 AM · NE

Patriots Beat Steelers 20–3

Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20. The closing line was Patriots −4.5; New England covered by 12.5.

NE since this note: −4.5 → −4.5 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Steelers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Wed 4:44 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 No
LT Troy Fautanu
Wed 5:04 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
CB Joey Porter Jr.
Fri 4:27 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.2 No
WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Sat 1:15 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.1 No

New England Patriots

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR A.J. Brown
Fri 1:14 PM		 Questionable → IR0.0 No
LB Robert Spillane
Wed 5:25 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
LB Dre'Mont Jones
Wed 5:25 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
CB Carlton Davis III
Wed 5:25 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 No
CB Carlton Davis III
Sat 2:57 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.2 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Patriots side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−4.5 −110−2251.44 66.4%—Sun 12:55 PM
DraftKings−4.5 −118−2251.44 66.4%—Sun 12:55 PM
FanDuel−4.5 −115−2301.43 66.9%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetMGM−4.5 −105−2251.44 66.6%—Sun 12:55 PM
Caesars−4.5 −110−2351.43 67.3%—Sun 12:55 PM
Fanatics−4.5 −110−2251.44 66.4%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetRivers−5 −112−2351.43 66.7%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetOnline−4.5 −110−2201.45 66.3%—Sun 12:55 PM
Bovada−4.5 −110—— ——Sun 12:55 PM
LowVig−4.5 −105−2201.45 66.3%—Sun 12:55 PM
MyBookie−4.5 −110−2161.46 65.8%—Sun 12:55 PM
BetUS−4.5 −105−2201.45 66.2%—Sun 12:55 PM

Best for PIT: BetRivers +5 (−109)Best for NE: BetMGM −4.5 (−105)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Steelers side is the mirror image.