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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 Week 2 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 2 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 2 · Sunday, September 20, 4:25 PM ET · Final WAS 20, DAL 37

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys −4.5 at our first look, −4 at kickoff. 15 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Cowboys lineDallas Cowboys spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Dallas.
−5−4−3Opening line−4.5DAL S Hooker ruled outMon 12:30 AM+0.5DAL LB Overshown ruled outMon 11:35 AM+0.5WAS LB Armstrong questionableWed 4:20 PM−0.5Closing line−4
−5−4−3Opening line−4.5DAL S Hooker ruled outMon 12:30 AM+0.5DAL LB Overshown ruled outMon 11:35 AM+0.5WAS LB Armstrong questionableWed 4:20 PM−0.5Closing line−4

Final: WAS 20, DAL 37. Cowboys beat the closing number by 13.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−4.5
DAL S Hooker ruled outMon Sep 14, 12:30 AM ET+0.5
DAL LB Overshown ruled outMon Sep 14, 11:35 AM ET+0.5
WAS LB Armstrong questionableWed Sep 16, 4:20 PM ET-0.5
Closing line−4
What moved the Cowboys moneylineDallas Cowboys chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Dallas.
63%64%65%66%Opening line65.2% (−187)DAL S Hooker ruled outMon 12:30 AM−185DAL LB Overshown ruled outMon 11:35 AM−171WAS LB Armstrong questionableWed 4:20 PM−185Less than the spread implies−190Closing line65.5% (−190)
63%64%65%66%Opening line65.2% (−187)DAL S Hooker ruled outMon 12:30 AM−185DAL LB Overshown ruled outMon 11:35 AM−171WAS LB Armstrong questionableWed 4:20 PM−185Less than the spread implies−190Closing line65.5% (−190)

Final: WAS 20, DAL 37. Cowboys won at a 66% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line65.2% (−187)
DAL S Hooker ruled outMon Sep 14, 12:30 AM ET64.9% (−185)
DAL LB Overshown ruled outMon Sep 14, 11:35 AM ET63.1% (−171)
WAS LB Armstrong questionableWed Sep 16, 4:20 PM ET64.9% (−185)
Less than the spread implies65.5% (−190)
Closing line65.5% (−190)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 12:18 AM · DAL

Cowboys Beat Commanders 37–20 Despite Mariota Starting

Final: Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37. Marcus Mariota started at quarterback for Washington in place of Jayden Daniels and went 11/16 for 111 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions. The closing line was Cowboys −4; Dallas covered by 13.

DAL since this note: −4 → −4 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Washington Commanders

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Frankie Luvu
Sun 6:40 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
TE Chig Okonkwo
Sun 7:21 PM
Active → Questionable+0.0 No
LB Dorance Armstrong
Mon 8:51 PM
Suspended → Returning−0.4 Yes
DT Daron Payne
Wed 4:23 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes
LB Odafe Oweh
Wed 4:23 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
LB K'Lavon Chaisson
Wed 4:23 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
LB Dorance Armstrong
Wed 4:23 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
TE Chig Okonkwo
Fri 1:02 PM
Questionable → Out+0.0 No
LB Frankie Luvu
Fri 1:02 PM
Questionable → Out+0.3 No
EDGE Javon Kinlaw
Fri 4:27 PM
Active → Questionable+0.4 Yes

Dallas Cowboys

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
S Malik Hooker
Sun 11:26 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
LB DeMarvion Overshown
Mon 11:40 AM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
S Malik Hooker
Mon 1:01 PM
Questionable → Doubtful+0.2 No
LB DeMarvion Overshown
Fri 4:47 PM
Questionable → Out+0.3 No
S Malik Hooker
Fri 4:47 PM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Cowboys side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−4 −110−2121.47 65.5%—Sun 4:20 PM
DraftKings−3.5 −120−2251.44 66.4%—Sun 4:20 PM
FanDuel−4.5 −106−2151.47 65.6%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetMGM−4 −105−2201.45 65.8%—Sun 4:20 PM
Caesars−4 −111−2091.48 65.0%—Sun 4:20 PM
Fanatics−4 −110−2151.47 65.2%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetRivers−4 −112−2151.47 64.8%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetOnline−4 −110−2121.47 65.6%—Sun 4:20 PM
Bovada−4 −110−2101.48 65.1%—Sun 4:20 PM
LowVig−4 −103−2121.47 65.6%—Sun 4:20 PM
MyBookie−4 −110−2081.48 64.9%—Sun 4:20 PM
BetUS−4 −110−2101.48 65.5%—Sun 4:20 PM

Best for WAS: FanDuel +4.5 (−114)Best for DAL: DraftKings −3.5 (−120)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Commanders side is the mirror image.