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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 3:30 PM ET · Final Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20

Bowling Green at Miami (OH)

Miami (OH) −15.5 at our first look, −10.5 at kickoff. Mid-American game.

Conditions · Yager Stadium: At kickoff: 67°F, wind 9 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Bowling Green 0.0 · Miami (OH) 0.0. Market: moved 5 toward Bowling Green.

Landed: Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20. Bowling Green covered the closing line (Miami (OH) −10.5). The move toward Bowling Green was right. 44 points, over the closing total of 41.5.

Bowling Green Falcons 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Miami (OH) RedHawks 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Miami (OH) lineMiami (OH) RedHawks spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Miami (OH).
−16−15−14−13−12−11−10Opening line−15.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 9:55 AM+4Closing line−10.5
−16−14−12−10Opening line−15.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 9:55 AM+4Closing line−10.5

Final: Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20. Miami (OH) missed the closing number by 14.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−15.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 3:55 PM ET+1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 9:55 AM ET+4
Closing line−10.5
What moved the Miami (OH) moneylineMiami (OH) RedHawks moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Miami (OH).
−355−400−456−525−614Opening line−604Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−604Market move, no reported newsMon 9:55 AM−363Less than the spread implies−378Closing line−378
−355−400−456−525−614Opening line−604Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−604Market move, no reported newsMon 9:55 AM−363Less than the spread implies−378Closing line−378
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line85.8% (−604)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 3:55 PM ET85.8% (−604)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 9:55 AM ET78.4% (−363)
Less than the spread implies79.1% (−378)
Closing line79.1% (−378)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4142434445464748Opening line47.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−4Closing line41.5
42444648Opening line47.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−4Closing line41.5

Final: 44 points, over the closing total of 41.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line47.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 5:55 PM ET-2
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 11:55 AM ET-4
Closing line41.5

Every Book · Miami (OH) side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−10.5 −110−4601.22 79.1%41.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−10.5 −110−4701.21 79.1%41.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−10.5 −115−4501.22 78.3%41.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−10.5 −108−4501.22 79.0%41.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics−10.5 −110−4751.21 79.2%41.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers−10.5 −108−5601.18 80.3%41.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−10 −113−4501.22 78.6%41.5Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−10.5 −110−5001.20 79.3%41.5Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−10 −109−4501.22 78.6%41.5Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−10.5 −110−4901.20 79.3%41.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−10 −110−4501.22 78.8%41.5Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.