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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 3:30 PM ET · Final Eastern Michigan 38, Massachusetts 14

Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts

Massachusetts −4 at our first look, −5.5 at kickoff. Mid-American game.

Conditions · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium: At kickoff: 70°F, wind 7 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Eastern Michigan 0.0 · Massachusetts 0.0. Market: moved 1.5 toward Massachusetts.

Landed: Eastern Michigan 38, Massachusetts 14. Eastern Michigan covered the closing line (Massachusetts −5.5). The move toward Massachusetts was wrong. 52 points, over the closing total of 48.5.

Eastern Michigan Eagles 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Massachusetts Minutemen 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Massachusetts lineMassachusetts Minutemen spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Massachusetts.
−6−5−4Opening line−4Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−1Closing line−5.5
−6−5−4Opening line−4Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−1Closing line−5.5

Final: Eastern Michigan 38, Massachusetts 14. Massachusetts missed the closing number by 29.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−4
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 3:55 PM ET-0.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 3:55 PM ET-1
Closing line−5.5
What moved the Massachusetts moneylineMassachusetts Minutemen moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Massachusetts.
−163−178−194Opening line−160Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−162Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−192Price-only move−197Closing line−197
−163−178−194Opening line−160Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−162Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−192Price-only move−197Closing line−197
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line61.6% (−160)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 3:55 PM ET61.9% (−162)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 3:55 PM ET65.7% (−192)
Price-only move66.3% (−197)
Closing line66.3% (−197)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4849Opening line49Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−0.5Closing line48.5
4849Opening line49Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−0.5Closing line48.5

Final: 52 points, over the closing total of 48.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line49
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 3:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line48.5

Every Book · Massachusetts side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−5.5 −110−2251.44 66.3%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−5.5 −110−2251.44 66.4%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−5.5 −115−2251.44 66.3%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−5.5 −110−2251.44 66.4%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−5.5 −108−1901.53 62.7%48.5Mon 7:55 AM
Fanatics−5.5 −110−2251.44 66.4%49Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers−6 −109−2301.43 66.1%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−5 −112−2201.45 66.3%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−5.5 −110−2201.45 65.8%49Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−5 −108−2201.45 66.3%48.5Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie— ——— —49Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−5.5 −110−2151.47 65.9%48.5Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.