4 reports filed today
Every book · every report · every result

The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Week 3 · Sunday, September 27, 4:05 PM ET · Final ARI 30, SF 36

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

49ers −8.5 at our first look, −7.5 at kickoff. 13 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the 49ers lineSan Francisco 49ers spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against San Francisco.
−9−8−7Opening line−8.5SF WR Robinson to injured reserveSat 8:28 PM+1Closing line−7.5
−9−8−7Opening line−8.5SF WR Robinson to injured reserveSat 8:28 PM+1Closing line−7.5

Final: ARI 30, SF 36. 49ers missed the closing number by 1.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−8.5
SF WR Robinson to injured reserveSat Sep 26, 8:28 PM ET+1
Closing line−7.5
What moved the 49ers moneylineSan Francisco 49ers chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward San Francisco.
76%77%78%79%80%Opening line79.5% (−388)SF WR Robinson to injured reserveSat 8:28 PM−327Price-only move−318Closing line76.1% (−318)
76%77%78%79%80%Opening line79.5% (−388)SF WR Robinson to injured reserveSat 8:28 PM−327Price-only move−318Closing line76.1% (−318)

Final: ARI 30, SF 36. 49ers won at a 76% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line79.5% (−388)
SF WR Robinson to injured reserveSat Sep 26, 8:28 PM ET76.6% (−327)
Price-only move76.1% (−318)
Closing line76.1% (−318)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 1:16 AM · SF

49ers Beat Cardinals 36–30

Final: Arizona Cardinals 30, San Francisco 49ers 36. The closing line was 49ers −7.5; Arizona covered by 1.5. The market moved San Francisco 1 points over Nick Bosa's absence (−8.5 to −7.5); 49ers fell short of it by 1.5.

SF since this note: −7.5 → −7.5 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Arizona Cardinals

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
CB Will Johnson
Sun 7:33 PM
Active → Questionable+0.3 No
CB Will Johnson
Mon 6:08 PM
Questionable → Doubtful+0.4 No
CB Will Johnson
Tue 10:27 AM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No
CB Will Johnson
Wed 1:18 PM
Out → IR0.0 No
C Hjalte Froholdt
Wed 8:25 PM
Active → Questionable+0.3 Yes
DT Roy Lopez
Wed 8:25 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes

San Francisco 49ers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR Demarcus Robinson
Sun 5:51 PM
Active → Doubtful+0.5 No
WR Demarcus Robinson
Mon 4:47 PM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No
WR Mike Evans
Mon 4:47 PM
Active → Questionable+0.4 Yes
EDGE Nick Bosa
Thu 7:50 PM
Active → Questionable+0.4 No
EDGE Nick Bosa
Fri 11:48 AM
Questionable → Doubtful+0.6 No
EDGE Nick Bosa
Fri 5:54 PM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No
WR Demarcus Robinson
Sat 5:21 PM
Out → IR0.0 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · 49ers side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−7.5 −109−3801.26 76.1%—Sun 4:00 PM
Kalshi— —−3441.29 77.5%—Sun 4:00 PM
DraftKings−7.5 −110−4101.24 77.2%—Sun 4:00 PM
FanDuel−7.5 −106−4001.25 76.9%—Sun 4:00 PM
BetMGM−7.5 −105−3751.27 75.9%—Sun 4:00 PM
Caesars−7.5 −109−3801.26 76.0%—Sun 4:00 PM
Fanatics−7.5 −110−3751.27 75.5%—Sun 4:00 PM
BetRivers−7.5 −109−4201.24 77.2%—Sun 4:00 PM
BetOnline−7.5 −107−3801.26 76.1%—Sun 4:00 PM
Bovada−7.5 −110−3801.26 75.5%—Sun 4:00 PM
LowVig−7.5 −108−3801.26 76.1%—Sun 4:00 PM
MyBookie−7.5 −110−3741.27 75.8%—Sun 4:00 PM
BetUS−7.5 −105−3801.26 76.2%—Sun 4:00 PM

Best for ARI: BetMGM +7.5 (−105)Best for SF: BetMGM −7.5 (−105)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Cardinals side is the mirror image.