4 reports filed today
Every book · every report · every result

The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Week 3 · Sunday, September 27, 1:00 PM ET · Final KC 24, MIA 10

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins

Dolphins +10.5 at our first look, +10 at kickoff. 9 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Dolphins lineMiami Dolphins spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Miami.
+10+11+12Opening line+10.5MIA WR Douglas ruled outMon 3:25 PM+1KC EDGE Anudike-UzomahquestionableWed 10:52 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsFri 10:15 AM−1Closing line+10
+10+11+12Opening line+10.5MIA WR Douglas ruled outMon 3:25 PM+1KC EDGE Anudike-Uzomah questionableWed 10:52 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsFri 10:15 AM−1Closing line+10

Final: KC 24, MIA 10. Dolphins missed the closing number by 4.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+10.5
MIA WR Douglas ruled outMon Sep 21, 3:25 PM ET+1
KC EDGE Anudike-Uzomah questionableWed Sep 23, 10:52 PM ET-0.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 10:15 AM ET-1
Closing line+10
What moved the Dolphins moneylineMiami Dolphins chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Miami.
15%16%17%18%Opening line17.6% (+468)MIA WR Douglas ruled outMon 3:25 PM+549KC EDGE Anudike-UzomahquestionableWed 10:52 PM+495Market move, no reported newsFri 10:15 AM+452Less than the spread implies+478Closing line17.3% (+478)
15%16%17%18%Opening line17.6% (+468)MIA WR Douglas ruled outMon 3:25 PM+549KC EDGE Anudike-Uzomah questionableWed 10:52 PM+495Market move, no reported newsFri 10:15 AM+452Less than the spread implies+478Closing line17.3% (+478)

Final: KC 24, MIA 10. Dolphins lost at a 17% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line17.6% (+468)
MIA WR Douglas ruled outMon Sep 21, 3:25 PM ET15.4% (+549)
KC EDGE Anudike-Uzomah questionableWed Sep 23, 10:52 PM ET16.8% (+495)
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 10:15 AM ET18.1% (+452)
Less than the spread implies17.3% (+478)
Closing line17.3% (+478)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 12:18 AM · KC

Chiefs Beat Dolphins 24–10

Final: Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10. The closing line was Dolphins +10; Kansas City covered by 4.

KC since this note: −10 → −10 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Kansas City Chiefs

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
CB L'Jarius Sneed
Wed 5:01 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 Yes
DT Chris Jones
Wed 5:01 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes
EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah
Wed 5:01 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.4 Yes

Miami Dolphins

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR Caleb Douglas
Sun 7:33 PM		 Active → Questionable0.0 No
WR Jalen Tolbert
Mon 3:25 PM		 Out → Returning−0.5 Yes
EDGE Chop Robinson
Tue 5:16 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.6 Yes
WR Chris Bell
Wed 5:22 PM		 Active → Questionable0.0 Yes
CB JuJu Brents
Wed 5:42 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 No
WR Caleb Douglas
Fri 11:07 AM		 Questionable → Out0.0 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Dolphins side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+10 −110+4555.55 17.3%—Sun 12:54 PM
Kalshi— —+5456.45 15.5%—Sun 12:54 PM
DraftKings+10 −112+4405.40 17.8%—Sun 12:54 PM
FanDuel+9.5 −102+4605.60 17.2%—Sun 12:54 PM
BetMGM+9.5 −105+4255.25 18.4%—Sun 12:54 PM
Caesars+10 −115+4255.25 18.2%—Sun 12:54 PM
Fanatics+9.5 −105+4305.30 18.0%—Sun 12:54 PM
BetRivers+9.5 −106+5006.00 16.0%—Sun 12:54 PM
BetOnline+10 −115+4555.55 17.3%—Sun 12:54 PM
Bovada+9.5 −105+4105.10 18.7%—Sun 12:54 PM
LowVig+10 −115+4555.55 17.3%—Sun 12:54 PM
MyBookie+10 −110+4555.55 17.3%—Sun 12:54 PM
BetUS+10 −115+4655.65 17.0%—Sun 12:54 PM

Best for KC: BetMGM −9.5 (−105)Best for MIA: DraftKings +10 (−112)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Chiefs side is the mirror image.