Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers +1.5 at our first look, +3.5 now. 13 injury reports on file.
Line Movement
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | +1.5 | |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Sep 27, 6:04 PM ET | -4 |
| Daniels in line to start for Bucs with Mayfield sidelined | Sun Sep 27, 10:22 PM ET | +6 |
| TB QB Mayfield ruled out | Mon Sep 28, 7:26 PM ET | +0.5 |
| TB LB Bain Jr. upgraded | Wed Sep 30, 11:48 AM ET | -0.5 |
| Line now | +3.5 |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 48.3% (+107) | |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Sep 27, 6:04 PM ET | 56.2% (−128) |
| Daniels in line to start for Bucs with Mayfield sidelined | Sun Sep 27, 10:22 PM ET | 39.5% (+153) |
| TB QB Mayfield ruled out | Mon Sep 28, 7:26 PM ET | 37.7% (+165) |
| TB LB Bain Jr. upgraded | Wed Sep 30, 11:48 AM ET | 39.5% (+153) |
| Price-only move | 37.4% (+167) | |
| Line now | 37.4% (+167) |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 39.5 | |
| Market move, no reported news | Wed Sep 30, 6:02 PM ET | -1 |
| Line now | 38.5 |
Notes
Bucs lose Mayfield for at least three weeks with thumb injury
Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles said quarterback Baker Mayfield will be sidelined a minimum of three weeks after dislocating the thumb on his throwing hand. That rules him out against Green Bay and forces a backup into the starting role. ESPN
TB since this note: +4 → +3.5 (−0.5)
Rain Chance for Packers at Buccaneers
The forecast for kickoff at Raymond James Stadium calls for a 61% chance of rain, 90°F. Forecasts change; this note updates as the game gets closer.
Packers add veteran lineman Becton
Green Bay signed offensive lineman Mekhi Becton on Monday. The move gives the Packers interior line depth ahead of Sunday's game at Tampa Bay. ESPN
GB since this note: −3.5 → −3.5 (no move)
Bucs tending to Mayfield, McMillan injuries after Vikings defeat
Tampa Bay came out of its 23-16 loss to Minnesota with injury concerns involving quarterback Baker Mayfield and receiver Jalen McMillan. Mayfield's status is the key variable for the Buccaneers' next game against Green Bay. ESPN
TB since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move)
Daniels in line to start for Bucs with Mayfield sidelined
Jalon Daniels replaced the injured Baker Mayfield during Tampa Bay's loss to Minnesota, going 0-for-3 with an interception and a nine-yard run. With Mayfield expected out for several weeks, Daniels is positioned to take the snaps against Green Bay. ESPN player news
TB since this note: +3 → +3.5 (+0.5)
Injury Report
Green Bay Packers
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| LB Edgerrin Cooper Fri 5:13 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.2 | — |
| G Aaron Banks Tue 1:06 PM |
Out → Questionable | −0.3 | — |
| RT Zach Bako-Bewele Tue 1:06 PM |
Out → IR | 0.0 | — |
| LB Lukas Van Ness Wed 5:33 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.2 | — |
| EDGE Karl Brooks Wed 5:33 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | — |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR Jalen McMillan Sun 4:44 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | — |
| QB Baker Mayfield Sun 7:27 PM |
Active → Questionable | +1.3 | — |
| QB Baker Mayfield Mon 1:03 PM |
Questionable → Out | +2.3 | — |
| LB Josiah Trotter Tue 1:06 PM |
Out → Questionable | −0.3 | — |
| LB Rueben Bain Jr. Tue 1:06 PM |
Out → Questionable | −0.4 | — |
| WR Chris Godwin Jr. Wed 4:53 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.2 | — |
| RB Bucky Irving Wed 4:53 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | — |
| LB Yaya Diaby Wed 6:14 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | — |
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Buccaneers side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | +3.5 | −110 | +155 | 2.55 | 37.4% | 38.5 | Thu 3:15 PM |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | — | — | — | — | 38.5 | Thu 3:15 PM |
| DraftKings | +3.5 | −108 | +154 | 2.54 | 37.8% | 38.5 | Thu 3:15 PM |
| FanDuel | +3.5 | −110 | +152 | 2.52 | 38.2% | 38.5 | Thu 3:15 PM |
| BetMGM | +3.5 | −110 | +155 | 2.55 | 37.4% | 38.5 | Thu 3:15 PM |
| Caesars | +3.5 | −109 | +154 | 2.54 | 37.5% | 38.5 | Thu 3:15 PM |
| Fanatics | +3.5 | −115 | +155 | 2.55 | 37.4% | 38.5 | Thu 3:15 PM |
| BetRivers | +3.5 | −109 | +155 | 2.55 | 37.2% | 39 | Thu 3:15 PM |
| BetOnline | +3.5 | −115 | +161 | 2.61 | 37.1% | 38.5 | Thu 3:15 PM |
| Bovada | +3.5 | −115 | +160 | 2.60 | 37.2% | 38.5 | Thu 3:15 PM |
| LowVig | +3.5 | −109 | +161 | 2.61 | 37.1% | 38.5 | Thu 3:15 PM |
| MyBookie | +3.5 | −110 | +154 | 2.54 | 37.5% | 38.5 | Thu 3:15 PM |
| BetUS | +3.5 | −115 | +159 | 2.59 | 37.3% | 38.5 | Thu 3:15 PM |
Best for GB: Fanatics −3.5 (−105)Best for TB: DraftKings +3.5 (−108)
Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Packers side is the mirror image.