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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 9:30 AM ET

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders

Commanders +4.5 at our first look, +3.5 now. 11 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Commanders lineWashington Commanders spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Washington.
+3+4+5Opening line+4.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:53 PM−1.5Daniels to travel to London, stillunsure for Colts gameMon 2:24 PM · possibly+0.5Line now+3.5
+3+4+5Opening line+4.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:53 PM−1.5Daniels to travel to London, still unsure forColts gameMon 2:24 PM · possibly+0.5Line now+3.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+4.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 5:53 PM ET-1.5
Daniels to travel to London, still unsure for Colts gameMon Sep 28, 2:24 PM ET+0.5
Line now+3.5
What moved the Commanders moneylineWashington Commanders chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Washington.
34%36%38%40%42%Opening line34.1% (+193)Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:53 PM+143Daniels to travel to London, stillunsure for Colts gameMon 2:24 PM · possibly+176Line now36.2% (+176)
34%36%38%40%42%Opening line34.1% (+193)Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:53 PM+143Daniels to travel to London, still unsure forColts gameMon 2:24 PM · possibly+176Line now36.2% (+176)
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line34.1% (+193)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 5:53 PM ET41.2% (+143)
Daniels to travel to London, still unsure for Colts gameMon Sep 28, 2:24 PM ET36.2% (+176)
Line now36.2% (+176)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Weather and quarterback news move this line.
4748Opening line47Market move, no reported newsWed 10:47 AM+0.5Line now47.5
4748Opening line47Market move, no reported newsWed 10:47 AM+0.5Line now47.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line47
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 30, 10:47 AM ET+0.5
Line now47.5

Notes

InjuryThu Oct 1, 2:44 PM · WAS

Daniels leaves Colts start open, calls elbow a day-to-day matter

Jayden Daniels said he is evaluating his injured left elbow day by day and has not been ruled in or out for Sunday's game against Indianapolis in London. He said he is not worried about aggravating the injury. Washington's quarterback situation for the week remains unsettled. ESPN

WAS since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move)

InjuryTue Sep 29, 12:28 PM · WAS

Daniels to skip elbow surgery for now, may operate after season

Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels will not have a procedure on his dislocated left elbow at this time, with surgery possible once the season ends. That keeps a return this season on the table, though he remains out for now. ESPN player news

WAS since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move)

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · WAS

Daniels to travel to London, still unsure for Colts game

Dan Quinn said Jayden Daniels, dealing with an elbow injury, is expected to make the trip to London with the team. His availability against Indianapolis remains undecided, leaving Washington's quarterback plan unsettled. ESPN player news

WAS since this note: +3 → +3.5 (+0.5)

Injury Report

Indianapolis Colts

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Akeem Davis-Gaither
Wed 4:12 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —

Washington Commanders

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Frankie Luvu
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.4 —
S Nick Cross
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Doubtful−0.0 —
G Sam Cosmi
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.5 —
QB Jayden Daniels
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.5 —
TE Chig Okonkwo
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.0 —
G Sam Cosmi
Tue 7:32 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.5 —
S Nick Cross
Tue 7:32 PM		 Doubtful → Out+0.0 —
C Lucas Patrick
Wed 4:32 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.0 —
EDGE Javon Kinlaw
Wed 4:32 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.4 —
G Nick Allegretti
Wed 4:32 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Commanders side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3.5 −108+1652.65 36.2%47.5Thu 3:15 PM
Kalshi+4 ——— —48Thu 3:15 PM
DraftKings+3.5 −108+1602.60 36.9%47.5Thu 3:15 PM
FanDuel+3.5 −110+1642.64 36.4%47.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetMGM+3.5 −108+1652.65 36.1%48Thu 3:15 PM
Caesars+3.5 −108+1622.62 36.7%47.5Thu 3:15 PM
Fanatics+3.5 −105+1652.65 36.1%48Thu 3:15 PM
BetRivers+3.5 −107+1602.60 36.8%47Thu 3:15 PM
BetOnline+4 −110+1712.71 35.8%47.5Thu 3:15 PM
Bovada+4 −110+1702.70 35.7%48Thu 3:15 PM
LowVig+4 −107+1712.71 35.8%47.5Thu 3:15 PM
MyBookie+3.5 −110+1582.58 36.9%48Thu 3:15 PM
BetUS+4 −110+1672.67 36.2%47.5Thu 3:15 PM

Best for IND: FanDuel −3.5 (−110)Best for WAS: Fanatics +3.5 (−105)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Colts side is the mirror image.