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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 1:00 PM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals −2.5 at our first look, −2.5 now. 6 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Bengals lineCincinnati Bengals spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Cincinnati.
−3−2Opening line−2.5Market move, no reported newsSun 11:31 AM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 6:04 PM+0.5Line now−2.5
−3−2Opening line−2.5Market move, no reported newsSun 11:31 AM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 6:04 PM+0.5Line now−2.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−2.5
Market move, no reported newsSun Sep 27, 11:31 AM ET-0.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 6:04 PM ET+0.5
Line now−2.5
What moved the Bengals moneylineCincinnati Bengals chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Cincinnati.
56%57%58%59%Opening line57.6% (−136)Market move, no reported newsSun 11:31 AM−144Reaction to last week's gameSun 6:04 PM−136Price-only move−130Line now56.5% (−130)
56%57%58%59%Opening line57.6% (−136)Market move, no reported newsSun 11:31 AM−144Reaction to last week's gameSun 6:04 PM−136Price-only move−130Line now56.5% (−130)
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line57.6% (−136)
Market move, no reported newsSun Sep 27, 11:31 AM ET59.1% (−144)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 6:04 PM ET57.6% (−136)
Price-only move56.5% (−130)
Line now56.5% (−130)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Weather and quarterback news move this line.

51.5 no movement since tracking began Mon 11:10 PM ET.

Notes

RosterTue Sep 29, 1:29 PM · CIN

Bengals release Williams after punt muff, add Tinsley

Cincinnati cut receiver Ke'Shawn Williams following his muffed punt in the loss to Pittsburgh and signed Mitchell Tinsley. The Bengals will need a new punt returner and depth receiver against Jacksonville. ESPN

CIN since this note: −2.5 → −2.5 (no move)

Injury Report

Jacksonville Jaguars

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR Jakobi Meyers
Wed 4:32 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —
DT DaVon Hamilton
Wed 4:32 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 —
CB Montaric Brown
Wed 4:32 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —

Cincinnati Bengals

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
G Dalton Risner
Wed 4:32 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
S Bryan Cook
Wed 4:32 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.4 —
S Jordan Battle
Wed 4:32 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Bengals side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−2.5 −115−1421.70 56.5%51.5Thu 3:15 PM
Kalshi−3 ——— —51.5Thu 3:15 PM
DraftKings−2.5 −115−1421.70 56.3%51.5Thu 3:15 PM
FanDuel−2.5 −112−1341.75 55.1%51.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetMGM−2.5 −115−1451.69 56.6%51.5Thu 3:15 PM
Caesars−2.5 −118−1411.71 56.2%51.5Thu 3:15 PM
Fanatics−2.5 −120−1451.69 56.6%51.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetRivers−2.5 −115−1411.71 55.8%51.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetOnline−2.5 −119−1421.70 56.6%51.5Thu 3:15 PM
Bovada−3 +100−1501.67 58.0%51.5Thu 3:15 PM
LowVig−2.5 −113−1421.70 56.6%51.5Thu 3:15 PM
MyBookie−2.5 −115−1461.68 56.5%51.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetUS−2 −120−1401.71 56.2%51.5Thu 3:15 PM

Best for JAX: Fanatics +2.5 (+100)Best for CIN: FanDuel −2.5 (−112)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Jaguars side is the mirror image.