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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 4:25 PM ET

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks −6.5 at our first look, −7 now. 12 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Seahawks lineSeattle Seahawks spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Seattle.
−7−6Opening line−6.5Market move, no reported newsMon 12:19 PM−0.5Line now−7
−7−6Opening line−6.5Market move, no reported newsMon 12:19 PM−0.5Line now−7
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−6.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 12:19 PM ET-0.5
Line now−7
What moved the Seahawks moneylineSeattle Seahawks chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Seattle.
73%74%75%Opening line73.1% (−272)Market move, no reported newsMon 12:19 PM−295Line now74.5% (−292)
73%74%75%Opening line73.1% (−272)Market move, no reported newsMon 12:19 PM−295Line now74.5% (−292)
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line73.1% (−272)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 12:19 PM ET74.7% (−295)
Line now74.5% (−292)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Weather and quarterback news move this line.
4243Opening line43Market move, no reported newsWed 4:34 AM−0.5Line now42.5
4243Opening line43Market move, no reported newsWed 4:34 AM−0.5Line now42.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line43
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 30, 4:34 AM ET-0.5
Line now42.5

Notes

Team SaysMon Sep 28, 10:57 PM · SEA

Macdonald backs Price as Seattle's starting back despite fumbles

Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said the team still has confidence in rookie running back Jadarian Price after he fumbled in back-to-back games. The comment signals Price keeps the starting job heading into Sunday's game against the Chargers. ESPN

SEA since this note: −7 → −7 (no move)

Injury Report

Los Angeles Chargers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
DT Dalvin Tomlinson
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.3 —
TE Charlie Kolar
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Doubtful0.0 —
S Elijah Molden
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.3 —
G Kayode Awosika
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.0 —
WR Ladd McConkey
Wed 6:34 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —
EDGE Justin Eboigbe
Wed 6:55 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —
S Derwin James Jr.
Wed 6:55 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.4 —

Seattle Seahawks

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
S Julian Love
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.5 —
S Ty Okada
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.0 —
RB Jadarian Price
Wed 7:36 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
G Grey Zabel
Wed 7:56 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 —
EDGE Jarran Reed
Wed 7:56 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Seahawks side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−7 −115−3501.29 74.5%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
Kalshi−7 ——— —43Thu 3:15 PM
DraftKings−7 −115−3801.26 76.0%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
FanDuel−7 −115−3701.27 75.7%43.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetMGM−7 −115−3501.29 74.7%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
Caesars−7 −112−3351.30 73.8%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
Fanatics−7.5 −105−3501.29 74.5%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetRivers−7 −112−3601.28 74.1%43Thu 3:15 PM
BetOnline−7 −116−3451.29 74.6%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
Bovada−7 −115−3401.29 74.1%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
LowVig−7 −112−3451.29 74.6%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
MyBookie−7.5 +100−3701.27 74.4%43Thu 3:15 PM
BetUS−7 −115−3301.30 74.0%43Thu 3:15 PM

Best for LAC: Fanatics +7.5 (−115)Best for SEA: Caesars −7 (−112)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Chargers side is the mirror image.