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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 1:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles +2.5 at our first look, +3 now. 12 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Eagles linePhiladelphia Eagles spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Philadelphia.
+1+2+3Opening line+2.5LA CB Watson doubtfulMon 8:43 AM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 11:48 AM+1LA S Kinchens upgradedTue 8:32 AMmarket moved 5h before the report+0.5Line now+3
+1+2+3Opening line+2.5LA CB Watson doubtfulMon 8:43 AM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 11:48 AM+1LA S Kinchens upgradedTue 8:32 AM · market moved 5h before the report+0.5Line now+3
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+2.5
LA CB Watson doubtfulMon Sep 28, 8:43 AM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 11:48 AM ET+1
LA S Kinchens upgradedTue Sep 29, 8:32 AM ET+0.5
Line now+3
What moved the Eagles moneylinePhiladelphia Eagles chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Philadelphia.
40%42%44%46%Opening line44.3% (+126)LA CB Watson doubtfulMon 8:43 AM+115Market move, no reported newsMon 11:48 AM+126LA S Kinchens upgradedTue 8:32 AMmarket moved 5h before the report+134Price-only move+153Line now39.6% (+153)
40%42%44%46%Opening line44.3% (+126)LA CB Watson doubtfulMon 8:43 AM+115Market move, no reported newsMon 11:48 AM+126LA S Kinchens upgradedTue 8:32 AM · market moved 5h before the report+134Price-only move+153Line now39.6% (+153)
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line44.3% (+126)
LA CB Watson doubtfulMon Sep 28, 8:43 AM ET46.6% (+115)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 11:48 AM ET44.3% (+126)
LA S Kinchens upgradedTue Sep 29, 8:32 AM ET42.8% (+134)
Price-only move39.6% (+153)
Line now39.6% (+153)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Weather and quarterback news move this line.
434445Opening line45Reaction to last week's gameTue 1:17 AM−1.5Line now43.5
434445Opening line45Reaction to last week's gameTue 1:17 AM−1.5Line now43.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line45
Reaction to last week's gameTue Sep 29, 1:17 AM ET-1.5
Line now43.5

Notes

InjuryMon Sep 28, 10:58 PM · PHI

Greenard back from pectoral injury, debuts for Eagles

Edge rusher Jonathan Greenard played his first game for Philadelphia on Monday night after missing time with a pectoral injury. His return strengthens the Eagles' pass rush heading into Sunday's game against the Rams. ESPN

PHI since this note: +2.5 → +3 (+0.5)

WeatherTue Sep 29, 1:56 AM

Wind in the Forecast for Rams at Eagles

The forecast for kickoff at Lincoln Financial Field calls for wind 6 mph, gusting 26. Forecasts change; this note updates as the game gets closer.

MarketTue Sep 29, 9:04 AM · PHI

Line moves 1.5 toward the Rams after last week's results

The consensus spread on Rams at Eagles has moved from +1.5 to +3 (home side), with 5 of 5 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.

PHI since this note: +2 → +3 (+1.0)

Injury Report

Los Angeles Rams

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
CB Jaylen Watson
Sun 10:10 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.4 —
CB Jaylen Watson
Mon 6:49 PM		 Questionable → Doubtful+0.7 —
TE Colby Parkinson
Mon 6:49 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
S Kamren Kinchens
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.3 —
WR Puka Nacua
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.7 —
EDGE Aaron Donald
Wed 5:54 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.4 —
LB Nate Landman
Wed 8:16 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 —

Philadelphia Eagles

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
TE Dallas Goedert
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Doubtful−0.0 —
EDGE Moro Ojomo
Wed 7:36 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
LB Zack Baun
Wed 7:36 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —
LB Jihaad Campbell
Wed 7:36 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 —
WR DeVonta Smith
Wed 7:36 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Eagles side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3 −105+1402.40 39.6%43.5Thu 3:15 PM
Kalshi+3 ——— —43.5Thu 3:15 PM
DraftKings+3 −112+1362.36 40.7%43.5Thu 3:15 PM
FanDuel+3 −105+1382.38 40.3%43.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetMGM+3 −105+1402.40 40.1%43.5Thu 3:15 PM
Caesars+3 −110+1402.40 39.8%43.5Thu 3:15 PM
Fanatics+3 −105+1452.45 39.1%43.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetRivers+3 −108+1402.40 39.6%43Thu 3:15 PM
BetOnline+3 −105+1492.49 38.9%43.5Thu 3:15 PM
Bovada+3 −105+1502.50 38.6%44Thu 3:15 PM
LowVig+3 +100+1492.49 38.9%43.5Thu 3:15 PM
MyBookie+3 −110+1322.32 41.1%43.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetUS+3 −105+1462.46 39.2%43.5Thu 3:15 PM

Best for LA: DraftKings −3 (−108)Best for PHI: FanDuel +3 (−105)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Rams side is the mirror image.