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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

Week 5 · Monday, October 12, 8:15 PM ET

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

Rams −2.5 at our first look, −2.5 now. 3 injury reports on file.

Conditions: Indoors.

The read so far

News: Bills −0.5 · Rams 0.0 → favors the Rams by 0.5. Market: line unchanged. Not priced in

Buffalo Bills −0.5

EDGE Ed Oliver
Active → Questionable		 Questionable−0.3
NB Dee Alford
Active → Questionable		 Questionable−0.1
WR DJ Moore
Active → Questionable		 Questionable−0.1

Los Angeles Rams 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.

Line Movement

What moved the Rams lineLos Angeles Rams spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Los Angeles.

−2.5 no movement since tracking began Tue 3:47 PM ET.

What moved the Rams moneylineLos Angeles Rams moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = toward Los Angeles.
−122−127−133−138Opening line−124Price-only move−134Line now−134
−122−127−133−138Opening line−124Price-only move−134Line now−134
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line55.3% (−124)
Price-only move57.3% (−134)
Line now57.3% (−134)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Injuries on either side of the ball and weather move this line.
525354Opening line53BUF WR Moore questionableSun 11:18 AMmarket moved 3h before the report−0.5BUF EDGE Oliver questionableSun 6:26 PM+0.5BUF NB Alford questionableSun 6:26 PM+0.3Line now53.5
525354Opening line53BUF WR Moore questionableSun 11:18 AM · market moved 3h before the report−0.5BUF EDGE Oliver questionableSun 6:26 PM+0.5BUF NB Alford questionableSun 6:26 PM+0.3Line now53.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line53
BUF WR Moore questionableSun Oct 4, 11:18 AM ET-0.5
BUF EDGE Oliver questionableSun Oct 4, 6:26 PM ET+0.5
BUF NB Alford questionableSun Oct 4, 6:26 PM ET+0.3
Line now53.5

Injury Report

Buffalo Bills

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR DJ Moore
Sun 2:18 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
NB Dee Alford
Sun 3:21 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
EDGE Ed Oliver
Sun 3:21 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —

Los Angeles Rams

Nothing on the report.

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Rams side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−2.5 −115−1481.68 57.3%53.5Mon 1:53 AM
Kalshi— —−1351.74 57.5%—Mon 1:53 AM
DraftKings−2.5 −115−1481.68 57.2%53.5Mon 1:53 AM
FanDuel−2.5 −118−1481.68 57.4%53.5Mon 1:53 AM
BetMGM−2.5 −115−1501.67 57.4%53.5Mon 1:53 AM
Caesars−2.5 −114−1501.67 57.6%54Mon 1:53 AM
BetRivers−2.5 −115−1481.68 56.3%53.5Mon 1:53 AM
BetOnline−3 +100−1451.69 57.1%54Mon 1:53 AM
LowVig−3 +105−1451.69 57.1%54Mon 1:53 AM
MyBookie−2.5 −110—— —53Sun 12:54 PM
BetUS−2 −120—— —54Mon 1:53 AM

Best for BUF: BetMGM +2.5 (−102)Best for LA: Caesars −2.5 (−114)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Bills side is the mirror image.