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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

Week 5 · Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Saints +2 at our first look, +1.5 now. 1 injury report on file.

Conditions: Indoors.

The read so far

News: Vikings −0.2 · Saints 0.0 → favors the Saints by 0.2. Market: moved 0.5 toward the Saints.

Minnesota Vikings −0.2

LT Christian Darrisaw
Active → Questionable
Questionable−0.3

New Orleans Saints 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.

Line Movement

What moved the Saints lineNew Orleans Saints spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against New Orleans.
+1+2Opening line+2Market move, no reported newsTue 4:18 PM−0.5Line now+1.5
+1+2Opening line+2Market move, no reported newsTue 4:18 PM−0.5Line now+1.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+2
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 4:18 PM ET-0.5
Line now+1.5
What moved the Saints moneylineNew Orleans Saints moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = toward New Orleans.
+127+122+117+113Opening line+125Market move, no reported newsTue 4:18 PM+120Price-only move+112Line now+112
+127+122+117+113Opening line+125Market move, no reported newsTue 4:18 PM+120Price-only move+112Line now+112
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line44.5% (+125)
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 4:18 PM ET45.5% (+120)
Price-only move47.1% (+112)
Line now47.1% (+112)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Injuries on either side of the ball and weather move this line.
4243444546Opening line45.5Market move, no reported newsTue 4:49 PM−2.5MIN LT Darrisaw questionableSun 8:41 PM−0.5Line now42.5
4243444546Opening line45.5Market move, no reported newsTue 4:49 PM−2.5MIN LT Darrisaw questionableSun 8:41 PM−0.5Line now42.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line45.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 4:49 PM ET-2.5
MIN LT Darrisaw questionableSun Oct 4, 8:41 PM ET-0.5
Line now42.5

Notes

MarketSun Oct 4, 10:00 PM · NO

Total drops 2 for Vikings at Saints with no reported news

The consensus total on Vikings at Saints has moved from 44.5 to 42.5, with 4 of 4 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). Neither team has reported news that explains it yet; moves like this often come before a story breaks.

NO since this note: +1.5 → +1.5 (no move)

MarketSun Oct 4, 8:59 PM · NO

Total drops 3 for Vikings at Saints with no reported news

The consensus total on Vikings at Saints has moved from 45.5 to 42.5. Neither team has reported news that explains it yet; moves like this often come before a story breaks.

NO since this note: +1.5 → +1.5 (no move)

MarketMon Oct 5, 12:24 AM · NO

Total drops 2.5 for Vikings at Saints ahead of the news

The consensus total on Vikings at Saints has moved from 44.5 to 42, with 7 of 7 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The market started moving 6h 13m before the report: Christian Darrisaw (LT) Active to Questionable.

NO since this note: +2 → +1.5 (−0.5)

Injury Report

Minnesota Vikings

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LT Christian Darrisaw
Sun 5:32 PM
Active → Questionable+0.3 —

New Orleans Saints

Nothing on the report.

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Saints side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+1.5 −110+1052.05 47.1%42.5Mon 1:53 AM
Kalshi+1 —+1082.08 48.0%42.5Mon 1:53 AM
DraftKings+1.5 −110+1052.05 46.8%42.5Mon 1:53 AM
FanDuel+1.5 −110+1022.02 47.6%42.5Mon 1:53 AM
BetMGM+1.5 −108+1052.05 46.8%42.5Mon 1:53 AM
Caesars+1.5 −110+1032.03 47.4%42Mon 1:53 AM
BetRivers+1.5 −113+1002.00 47.7%43.5Mon 1:53 AM
BetOnline+1.5 −110+1052.05 46.8%42Mon 1:53 AM
LowVig+1.5 −105+1052.05 46.8%42Mon 1:53 AM
MyBookie+2 −110—— —45Sun 12:54 PM
BetUS+1 −105—— —42Mon 1:53 AM

Best for MIN: BetRivers −1.5 (−108)Best for NO: BetMGM +1.5 (−108)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Vikings side is the mirror image.