Week 5 · Sunday, October 11, 9:30 AM ET
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars −2.5 at our first look, −4.5 now. 2 injury reports on file.
Conditions · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium: Forecast 61°F, wind 13 mph (gusts 29), 23% chance of rain.
The read so far
News: Eagles −0.4 · Jaguars 0.0 → favors the Jaguars by 0.4. Market: moved 2 toward the Jaguars.
Philadelphia Eagles −0.4
| CB Quinyon Mitchell Active → Questionable |
Questionable | −0.3 |
| LB Jonathan Greenard Active → Questionable |
Questionable | −0.1 |
Jacksonville Jaguars 0.0
No news that moves the number.
Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.
Line Movement
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | −2.5 | |
| Market move, no reported news | Fri Oct 2, 11:18 AM ET | -0.5 |
| PHI CB Mitchell questionable | Sun Oct 4, 4:53 PM ET | -0.5 |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 4, 10:15 PM ET | -1 |
| Line now | −4.5 |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 56.3% (−129) | |
| Market move, no reported news | Fri Oct 2, 11:18 AM ET | 57.8% (−137) |
| PHI CB Mitchell questionable | Sun Oct 4, 4:53 PM ET | 62.8% (−169) |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 4, 10:15 PM ET | 64.9% (−185) |
| Price-only move | 65.5% (−190) | |
| Line now | 65.5% (−190) |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 45 | |
| Market move, no reported news | Tue Sep 29, 4:18 PM ET | -0.5 |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 4, 7:28 PM ET | -1 |
| Line now | 43.5 |
Notes
Line moves 1 toward the Jaguars after last week's results
The consensus spread on Eagles at Jaguars has moved from −3.5 to −4.5 (home side), with 6 of 7 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
JAX since this note: −4 → −4.5 (−0.5)
Total drops 1.5 for Eagles at Jaguars with no reported news
The consensus total on Eagles at Jaguars has moved from 45 to 43.5. Neither team has reported news that explains it yet; moves like this often come before a story breaks.
JAX since this note: −3.5 → −4.5 (−1.0)
Total drops 1.5 for Eagles at Jaguars with no reported news
The consensus total on Eagles at Jaguars has moved from 44 to 42.5. Neither team has reported news that explains it yet; moves like this often come before a story breaks.
JAX since this note: −3 → −4.5 (−1.5)
Line moves 1 on the news: Barkley hurts hamstring, questionable to return vs Rams
The consensus spread on Eagles at Jaguars has moved from −2.5 to −3.5 (home side). The move followed the report (possibly related): Barkley hurts hamstring, questionable to return vs Rams.
JAX since this note: −3 → −4.5 (−1.5)
Total drops 6.5 for Eagles at Jaguars
The consensus total on Eagles at Jaguars has moved from 44.5 to 38, with 0 of 5 books moving the same way. The move followed the report (possibly related): Barkley hurts hamstring, questionable to return vs Rams.
JAX since this note: −2.5 → −4.5 (−2.0)
Line moves 1.5 toward the Jaguars ahead of the news
The consensus spread on Eagles at Jaguars has moved from −3 to −4.5 (home side), with 4 of 4 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The market started moving 2h 00m before the report: Quinyon Mitchell (CB2) Active to Questionable.
JAX since this note: −3.5 → −4.5 (−1.0)
Injury Report
Philadelphia Eagles
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| CB Quinyon Mitchell Sun 3:15 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.3 | — |
| LB Jonathan Greenard Sun 3:31 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | — |
Jacksonville Jaguars
Nothing on the report.
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Jaguars side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | −4.5 | −108 | −213 | 1.47 | 65.5% | 43.5 | Mon 1:53 AM |
| Kalshi | −4.5 | — | −190 | 1.53 | 65.5% | 43 | Mon 1:53 AM |
| DraftKings | −4.5 | −110 | −225 | 1.44 | 66.4% | 43.5 | Mon 1:53 AM |
| FanDuel | −4.5 | −106 | −205 | 1.49 | 64.6% | 43.5 | Mon 1:53 AM |
| BetMGM | −4.5 | −108 | −220 | 1.45 | 65.8% | 43 | Mon 1:53 AM |
| Caesars | −4.5 | −108 | −213 | 1.47 | 65.4% | 43.5 | Mon 1:53 AM |
| BetRivers | −4.5 | −110 | −215 | 1.47 | 64.8% | 43.5 | Mon 1:53 AM |
| BetOnline | −4.5 | −107 | −210 | 1.48 | 65.5% | 43.5 | Mon 1:53 AM |
| LowVig | −4.5 | −102 | −210 | 1.48 | 65.5% | 43.5 | Mon 1:53 AM |
| MyBookie | −4 | −110 | — | — | — | 43 | Mon 1:53 AM |
| BetUS | −4.5 | −105 | — | — | — | 42.5 | Mon 1:53 AM |
Best for PHI: DraftKings +4.5 (−110)Best for JAX: FanDuel −4.5 (−106)
Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Eagles side is the mirror image.