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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 1:00 PM ET

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

Texans −3 at our first look, −3 now. 12 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Texans lineHouston Texans spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Houston.
−3−2Opening line−3Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:51 PM+0.5HOU WR Collins upgradedWed 2:24 PM−0.5Line now−3
−3−2Opening line−3Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:51 PM+0.5HOU WR Collins upgradedWed 2:24 PM−0.5Line now−3
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:51 PM ET+0.5
HOU WR Collins upgradedWed Sep 30, 2:24 PM ET-0.5
Line now−3
What moved the Texans moneylineHouston Texans chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Houston.
56%57%58%59%60%Opening line57.4% (−135)Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:51 PM−127HOU WR Collins upgradedWed 2:24 PM−135Price-only move−146Line now59.3% (−146)
56%57%58%59%60%Opening line57.4% (−135)Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:51 PM−127HOU WR Collins upgradedWed 2:24 PM−135Price-only move−146Line now59.3% (−146)
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line57.4% (−135)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:51 PM ET55.9% (−127)
HOU WR Collins upgradedWed Sep 30, 2:24 PM ET57.4% (−135)
Price-only move59.3% (−146)
Line now59.3% (−146)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Weather and quarterback news move this line.

48 no movement since tracking began Mon 11:10 PM ET.

Notes

InjuryMon Sep 28, 10:58 PM · DAL

Cowboys expect Thompson out a month-plus with hamstring trouble

Dallas executive Stephen Jones said safety Jalen Thompson could miss four or more weeks after hurting his hamstring against Baltimore. That rules him out at Houston and forces a change in the Cowboys' secondary rotation. ESPN

DAL since this note: +2.5 → +3 (+0.5)

Injury Report

Dallas Cowboys

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
S Jalen Thompson
Mon 7:10 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.5 —
LB DeMarvion Overshown
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.1 —
CB Cobie Durant
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Doubtful−0.0 —
S Malik Hooker
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.3 —
S Jalen Thompson
Wed 2:51 PM		 Out → IR0.0 —

Houston Texans

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
G Ed Ingram
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.3 —
WR Nico Collins
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.4 —
LB Azeez Al-Shaair
Wed 4:12 PM		 Active → Doubtful+0.7 —
S Calen Bullock
Wed 6:14 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 —
LB Jake Hansen
Wed 6:14 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
EDGE Will Anderson Jr.
Wed 6:14 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.7 —
RT Trent Brown
Wed 6:14 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Texans side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3 −110−1621.62 59.3%48Thu 3:15 PM
Kalshi−3 ——— —48.5Thu 3:15 PM
DraftKings−3 −112−1621.62 59.3%48.5Thu 3:15 PM
FanDuel−3 −110−1541.65 58.2%47.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetMGM−3 −110−1601.62 59.1%48Thu 3:15 PM
Caesars−3 −110−1591.63 59.1%48.5Thu 3:15 PM
Fanatics−3 −110−1651.61 59.4%48Thu 3:15 PM
BetRivers−3 −108−1571.64 57.9%48Thu 3:15 PM
BetOnline−3 −110−1621.62 59.9%48Thu 3:15 PM
Bovada−3 −110−1651.61 59.9%48Thu 3:15 PM
LowVig−3 −101−1621.62 59.9%48Thu 3:15 PM
MyBookie−3 −110−1641.61 59.1%48Thu 3:15 PM
BetUS−3 −110−1601.62 59.4%48Thu 3:15 PM

Best for DAL: DraftKings +3 (−108)Best for HOU: BetRivers −3 (−108)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Cowboys side is the mirror image.