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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 1:00 PM ET

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Ravens −10.5 at our first look, −11.5 now. 11 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Ravens lineBaltimore Ravens spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Baltimore.
−12−11−10Opening line−10.5TEN G Carmona to injured reserveSun 6:14 PM−1Line now−11.5
−12−11−10Opening line−10.5TEN G Carmona to injured reserveSun 6:14 PM−1Line now−11.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−10.5
TEN G Carmona to injured reserveSun Sep 27, 6:14 PM ET-1
Line now−11.5
What moved the Ravens moneylineBaltimore Ravens chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Baltimore.
83%84%85%Opening line82.8% (−481)TEN G Carmona to injured reserveSun 6:14 PM−567Less than the spread implies−517Line now83.8% (−517)
83%84%85%Opening line82.8% (−481)TEN G Carmona to injured reserveSun 6:14 PM−567Less than the spread implies−517Line now83.8% (−517)
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line82.8% (−481)
TEN G Carmona to injured reserveSun Sep 27, 6:14 PM ET85.0% (−567)
Less than the spread implies83.8% (−517)
Line now83.8% (−517)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Weather and quarterback news move this line.
424344Opening line43.5BAL QB Jackson questionableWed 5:31 PM−1Line now42.5
424344Opening line43.5BAL QB Jackson questionableWed 5:31 PM−1Line now42.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line43.5
BAL QB Jackson questionableWed Sep 30, 5:31 PM ET-1
Line now42.5

Notes

InjuryThu Oct 1, 2:44 PM · BAL

Jackson back on practice field as Ravens eye Sunday return

Lamar Jackson, dealing with a back issue and listed as questionable, took part in the early portion of Thursday's practice. His participation points toward a possible start against Tennessee, which would significantly change Baltimore's outlook. ESPN player news

BAL since this note: −11.5 → −11.5 (no move)

WeatherThu Oct 1, 3:02 PM

Rain Chance for Titans at Ravens

The forecast for kickoff at M&T Bank Stadium calls for a 55% chance of rain. Forecasts change; this note updates as the game gets closer.

InjuryMon Sep 28, 10:57 PM · BAL

Ravens may hand rookie Ioane the center job after losing two pivots

Baltimore lost both of its centers to injury during Sunday's win over Dallas, leaving rookie guard Vega Ioane as a possible starter at center. That would put an inexperienced player in charge of line calls against Tennessee in Week 4. ESPN

BAL since this note: −11.5 → −11.5 (no move)

Injury Report

Tennessee Titans

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
G Fernando Carmona
Sun 2:01 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 —
G Fernando Carmona
Mon 5:48 PM
Questionable → Doubtful+0.1 —
G Fernando Carmona
Tue 3:48 PM
Doubtful → IR+0.0 —
RB Tony Pollard
Wed 12:50 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 —
EDGE John Franklin-Myers
Wed 4:32 PM
Active → Questionable+0.4 —

Baltimore Ravens

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
C Jovaughn Gwyn
Mon 7:10 PM
Active → Out+0.0 —
LT Ronnie Stanley
Tue 1:06 PM
Out → Questionable−0.6 —
QB Lamar Jackson
Wed 3:52 PM
Active → Questionable+1.0 —
WR Zay Flowers
Wed 4:53 PM
Active → Questionable+0.3 —
CB Marlon Humphrey
Wed 4:53 PM
Active → Questionable+0.4 —
LB Trey Hendrickson
Wed 4:53 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Ravens side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−11.5 −110−7001.14 83.8%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
Kalshi−11.5 ——— —42.5Thu 3:15 PM
DraftKings−11.5 −108−6751.15 83.7%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
FanDuel−11.5 −110−7701.13 85.0%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetMGM−11.5 −108−7001.14 84.5%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
Caesars−11.5 −106−7001.14 83.5%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
Fanatics−11.5 −110−7001.14 84.0%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetRivers−11.5 −112−7151.14 84.0%43.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetOnline−11.5 −107−6801.15 83.8%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
Bovada−11.5 −110−7001.14 83.4%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
LowVig−11.5 −105−6801.15 83.8%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
MyBookie−11.5 −110−8001.12 84.6%42.5Thu 3:15 PM
BetUS−11.5 −110−6801.15 83.7%42.5Thu 3:15 PM

Best for TEN: BetRivers +11.5 (−109)Best for BAL: Caesars −11.5 (−106)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Titans side is the mirror image.