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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 Week 3 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 3 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 3 · Sunday, September 27, 4:25 PM ET · Final BAL 34, DAL 31

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys +3 at our first look, +3 at kickoff. 14 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Cowboys lineDallas Cowboys spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Dallas.
+3+4Opening line+3BAL WR Flowers upgradedWed 5:00 PM+0.5BAL LT Stanley ruled outSun 4:21 PM−0.5Closing line+3
+3+4Opening line+3BAL WR Flowers upgradedWed 5:00 PM+0.5BAL LT Stanley ruled outSun 4:21 PM−0.5Closing line+3

Final: BAL 34, DAL 31. Cowboys landed on the closing number.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+3
BAL WR Flowers upgradedWed Sep 23, 5:00 PM ET+0.5
BAL LT Stanley ruled outSun Sep 27, 4:21 PM ET-0.5
Closing line+3
What moved the Cowboys moneylineDallas Cowboys chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Dallas.
36%38%40%42%Opening line41.4% (+142)BAL WR Flowers upgradedWed 5:00 PM+175BAL LT Stanley ruled outSun 4:21 PM+142Price-only move+159Closing line38.6% (+159)
36%38%40%42%Opening line41.4% (+142)BAL WR Flowers upgradedWed 5:00 PM+175BAL LT Stanley ruled outSun 4:21 PM+142Price-only move+159Closing line38.6% (+159)

Final: BAL 34, DAL 31. Cowboys lost at a 39% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line41.4% (+142)
BAL WR Flowers upgradedWed Sep 23, 5:00 PM ET36.4% (+175)
BAL LT Stanley ruled outSun Sep 27, 4:21 PM ET41.4% (+142)
Price-only move38.6% (+159)
Closing line38.6% (+159)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 12:18 AM · BAL

Ravens Beat Cowboys 34–31

Final: Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31.

BAL since this note: −3 → −3 (no move) at kickoff

RosterTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · BAL

Fagnano inactive at Dallas, kept as Ravens' emergency QB

Baltimore made quarterback Joe Fagnano a healthy inactive for Sunday's game at Dallas. He remains available as the emergency third quarterback if needed. ESPN player news

BAL since this note: −3.5 → −3 (+0.5) at kickoff

Injury Report

Baltimore Ravens

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LT Ronnie Stanley
Sun 3:27 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
EDGE Nnamdi Madubuike
Tue 5:16 PM
Out → Questionable−0.3 Yes
WR Zay Flowers
Tue 5:16 PM
Out → Questionable−0.3 Yes
LB Teddye Buchanan
Tue 5:16 PM
Out → Questionable−0.1 Yes
G John Simpson
Wed 5:01 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
S Malaki Starks
Wed 5:01 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
LB Trey Hendrickson
Wed 5:01 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
LT Ronnie Stanley
Fri 5:13 PM
Questionable → Out+0.2 No

Dallas Cowboys

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
CB Cobie Durant
Mon 7:52 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
CB Cobie Durant
Tue 10:27 AM
Questionable → Out+0.2 No
LB DeMarvion Overshown
Tue 5:16 PM
Out → Questionable−0.1 No
S Malik Hooker
Tue 5:16 PM
Out → Doubtful−0.0 No
S Malik Hooker
Thu 5:27 PM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No
LB DeMarvion Overshown
Thu 5:48 PM
Questionable → Out+0.1 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Cowboys side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3 −107+1502.50 38.6%—Sun 4:21 PM
Kalshi— —+1602.60 38.5%—Sun 4:21 PM
DraftKings+3 +100+1422.42 39.6%—Sun 4:21 PM
FanDuel+3.5 −120+1482.48 38.6%—Sun 4:21 PM
BetMGM+3.5 −110+1452.45 39.1%—Sun 4:21 PM
Caesars+3.5 −114+1492.49 38.6%—Sun 4:21 PM
Fanatics+3.5 −120+1502.50 38.4%—Sun 4:21 PM
BetRivers+3 −107+1502.50 38.3%—Sun 4:21 PM
BetOnline+3 +100+1532.53 38.3%—Sun 4:21 PM
Bovada+3 +100+1502.50 38.6%—Sun 4:21 PM
LowVig+3 +107+1572.57 37.7%—Sun 4:21 PM
MyBookie+3.5 −115+1472.47 38.9%—Sun 4:21 PM
BetUS+3 +100+1502.50 38.6%—Sun 4:21 PM

Best for BAL: BetRivers −3 (−114)Best for DAL: BetMGM +3.5 (−110)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Ravens side is the mirror image.