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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 Week 3 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 3 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 3 · Sunday, September 27, 1:00 PM ET · Final CAR 18, CLE 21

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns

Browns +3 at our first look, +2 at kickoff. 16 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Browns lineCleveland Browns spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Cleveland.
+2+3Opening line+3CAR WR Coker questionableWed 6:40 PM−0.5CAR LB Lloyd ruled outSat 8:59 PM−0.5Closing line+2
+2+3Opening line+3CAR WR Coker questionableWed 6:40 PM−0.5CAR LB Lloyd ruled outSat 8:59 PM−0.5Closing line+2

Final: CAR 18, CLE 21. Browns beat the closing number by 5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+3
CAR WR Coker questionableWed Sep 23, 6:40 PM ET-0.5
CAR LB Lloyd ruled outSat Sep 26, 8:59 PM ET-0.5
Closing line+2
What moved the Browns moneylineCleveland Browns chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Cleveland.
43%44%45%46%Opening line42.8% (+134)CAR WR Coker questionableWed 6:40 PM+126CAR LB Lloyd ruled outSat 8:59 PM+119Closing line45.7% (+119)
43%44%45%46%Opening line42.8% (+134)CAR WR Coker questionableWed 6:40 PM+126CAR LB Lloyd ruled outSat 8:59 PM+119Closing line45.7% (+119)

Final: CAR 18, CLE 21. Browns won at a 46% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line42.8% (+134)
CAR WR Coker questionableWed Sep 23, 6:40 PM ET44.3% (+126)
CAR LB Lloyd ruled outSat Sep 26, 8:59 PM ET45.6% (+119)
Closing line45.7% (+119)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 12:18 AM · CLE

Browns Beat Panthers 21–18

Final: Carolina Panthers 18, Cleveland Browns 21. Cleveland won outright as the underdog; the closing line was Browns +2.

CLE since this note: +2 → +2 (no move) at kickoff

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · CLE

Browns rule out Taylen Green against Carolina

Cleveland listed Taylen Green as out and inactive for Sunday's home game with Carolina. His absence shifts snaps to others on the depth chart. ESPN player news

CLE since this note: +2 → +2 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Carolina Panthers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Patrick Jones II
Tue 5:16 PM
Out → Questionable−0.1 Yes
EDGE Bobby Brown III
Tue 5:16 PM
Out → Questionable−0.3 Yes
LB Jaelan Phillips
Wed 4:00 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
WR Jalen Coker
Wed 4:00 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 Yes
LB Devin Lloyd
Wed 4:00 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
S Nick Scott
Wed 4:00 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
S Nick Scott
Fri 1:30 PM
Questionable → Out+0.1 No
LB Devin Lloyd
Fri 1:30 PM
Questionable → Out+0.1 No

Cleveland Browns

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
CB Tyson Campbell
Sun 3:07 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
G Teven Jenkins
Tue 5:16 PM
Out → Questionable−0.1 No
LB Quincy Williams
Wed 4:00 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
RT Tytus Howard
Wed 4:00 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
DT Mason Graham
Wed 4:00 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
S Grant Delpit
Wed 4:00 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
G Teven Jenkins
Fri 5:13 PM
Questionable → Out+0.1 No
CB Tyson Campbell
Sun 12:20 PM
Questionable → Out+0.1 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Browns side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+2 −110+1102.10 45.7%—Sun 12:54 PM
Kalshi— —+1202.20 45.5%—Sun 12:54 PM
DraftKings+2.5 −112+1142.14 44.9%—Sun 12:54 PM
FanDuel+2.5 −115+1122.12 45.3%—Sun 12:54 PM
BetMGM+2.5 −110+1102.10 45.7%—Sun 12:54 PM
Caesars+2.5 −114+1102.10 45.7%—Sun 12:54 PM
Fanatics+2 −110+1102.10 45.7%—Sun 12:54 PM
BetRivers+2 −113+1102.10 45.2%—Sun 12:54 PM
BetOnline+1 −101+1072.07 46.3%—Sun 12:54 PM
Bovada+2 −115+1152.15 44.7%—Sun 12:54 PM
LowVig+1 +105+1072.07 46.3%—Sun 12:54 PM
MyBookie+1.5 −110+1052.05 46.8%—Sun 12:54 PM
BetUS+1 +100+1102.10 45.7%—Sun 12:54 PM

Best for CAR: BetRivers −2 (−108)Best for CLE: BetMGM +2.5 (−110)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Panthers side is the mirror image.