Week 3 · Sunday, September 27, 1:00 PM ET · Final LAC 16, BUF 24
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Bills −4.5 at our first look, −7 at kickoff. 20 injury reports on file.
Line Movement
Final: LAC 16, BUF 24. Bills beat the closing number by 1.
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | −4.5 | |
| LAC DT Tomlinson ruled out | Sun Sep 20, 7:10 PM ET | -2.5 |
| BUF EDGE Oliver upgraded | Wed Sep 23, 7:16 PM ET | -0.5 |
| BUF WR Coleman questionable | Thu Sep 24, 2:29 AM ET | +0.5 |
| Closing line | −7 |
Final: LAC 16, BUF 24. Bills won at a 74% closing chance to win.
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 65.9% (−193) | |
| LAC DT Tomlinson ruled out | Sun Sep 20, 7:10 PM ET | 75.8% (−313) |
| BUF EDGE Oliver upgraded | Wed Sep 23, 7:16 PM ET | 77.4% (−342) |
| BUF WR Coleman questionable | Thu Sep 24, 2:29 AM ET | 75.8% (−313) |
| Less than the spread implies | 74.3% (−289) | |
| Closing line | 74.3% (−289) |
Notes
Bills Beat Chargers 24–16
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24. The closing line was Bills −7; Buffalo covered by 1.
BUF since this note: −7 → −7 (no move) at kickoff
Chargers promote QB Uiagalelei ahead of Buffalo trip
Los Angeles moved quarterback DJ Uiagalelei from the practice squad to the active roster on Saturday. The move adds quarterback depth for Sunday's game at Buffalo and may hint at questions behind center. ESPN player news
LAC since this note: +7 → +7 (no move) at kickoff
Injury Report
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| S Derwin James Jr. Sun 4:49 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | Yes |
| DT Dalvin Tomlinson Sun 6:52 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | No |
| G Kayode Awosika Sun 7:13 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | No |
| TE Charlie Kolar Sun 7:13 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.0 | No |
| TE Charlie Kolar Mon 5:48 PM |
Questionable → Out | +0.0 | No |
| DT Dalvin Tomlinson Tue 1:31 PM |
Questionable → Doubtful | +0.1 | No |
| S Elijah Molden Tue 5:16 PM |
Out → Questionable | −0.1 | No |
| G Kayode Awosika Wed 3:20 PM |
Questionable → Doubtful | +0.1 | No |
| LB Tuli Tuipulotu Wed 6:43 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | Yes |
| LT Rashawn Slater Wed 6:43 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | Yes |
| G Cole Strange Wed 6:43 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | Yes |
| DT Dalvin Tomlinson Fri 2:50 PM |
Doubtful → Out | +0.0 | No |
| S Elijah Molden Fri 2:50 PM |
Questionable → Out | +0.1 | No |
| G Trey Pipkins III Fri 2:50 PM |
Questionable → Out | +0.1 | No |
| G Kayode Awosika Fri 2:50 PM |
Doubtful → Out | +0.0 | No |
| G Trey Pipkins III Sat 4:40 PM |
Out → IR | 0.0 | No |
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE T.J. Sanders Tue 5:16 PM |
Out → Questionable | −0.3 | No |
| EDGE Ed Oliver Tue 5:16 PM |
Out → Questionable | −0.3 | Yes |
| WR Keon Coleman Wed 7:03 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | Yes |
| EDGE T.J. Sanders Fri 2:50 PM |
Questionable → Out | +0.3 | No |
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Bills side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | −7 | −110 | −340 | 1.29 | 74.3% | — | Sun 12:54 PM |
| Kalshi | — | — | −308 | 1.32 | 75.5% | — | Sun 12:54 PM |
| DraftKings | −7 | −112 | −325 | 1.31 | 73.4% | — | Sun 12:54 PM |
| FanDuel | −7.5 | +100 | −375 | 1.27 | 75.9% | — | Sun 12:54 PM |
| BetMGM | −7 | −105 | −350 | 1.29 | 74.5% | — | Sun 12:54 PM |
| Caesars | −7 | −114 | −335 | 1.30 | 73.8% | — | Sun 12:54 PM |
| Fanatics | −7 | −110 | −350 | 1.29 | 74.5% | — | Sun 12:54 PM |
| BetRivers | −7 | −117 | −375 | 1.27 | 75.0% | — | Sun 12:54 PM |
| BetOnline | −7 | −110 | −340 | 1.29 | 74.3% | — | Sun 12:54 PM |
| Bovada | −7 | −110 | −340 | 1.29 | 74.1% | — | Sun 12:54 PM |
| LowVig | −7 | −105 | −340 | 1.29 | 74.3% | — | Sun 12:54 PM |
| MyBookie | −7 | −110 | −351 | 1.28 | 74.7% | — | Sun 12:54 PM |
| BetUS | −7 | −110 | −330 | 1.30 | 74.0% | — | Sun 12:54 PM |
Best for LAC: FanDuel +7.5 (−122)Best for BUF: BetMGM −7 (−105)
Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Chargers side is the mirror image.