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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 Week 3 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 3 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 3 · Sunday, September 27, 8:20 PM ET · Final LA 26, DEN 30

Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos

Broncos +2.5 at our first look, +1 at kickoff. 10 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Broncos lineDenver Broncos spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Denver.
+1+2+3Opening line+2.5LA WR Nacua ruled outSat 1:48 AM−0.5Market move, no reported newsSat 10:02 PM−1Closing line+1
+1+2+3Opening line+2.5LA WR Nacua ruled outSat 1:48 AM−0.5Market move, no reported newsSat 10:02 PM−1Closing line+1

Final: LA 26, DEN 30. Broncos beat the closing number by 5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+2.5
LA WR Nacua ruled outSat Sep 26, 1:48 AM ET-0.5
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 26, 10:02 PM ET-1
Closing line+1
What moved the Broncos moneylineDenver Broncos chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Denver.
45%46%47%48%49%50%Opening line45.3% (+121)LA WR Nacua ruled outSat 1:48 AM+115Market move, no reported newsSat 10:02 PM+106Price-only move+102Closing line49.4% (+102)
45%46%47%48%49%50%Opening line45.3% (+121)LA WR Nacua ruled outSat 1:48 AM+115Market move, no reported newsSat 10:02 PM+106Price-only move+102Closing line49.4% (+102)

Final: LA 26, DEN 30. Broncos won at a 49% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line45.3% (+121)
LA WR Nacua ruled outSat Sep 26, 1:48 AM ET46.6% (+115)
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 26, 10:02 PM ET48.6% (+106)
Price-only move49.4% (+102)
Closing line49.4% (+102)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 12:18 AM · DEN

Broncos Beat Rams 30–26

Final: Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30. Denver won outright as the underdog; the closing line was Broncos +1.

DEN since this note: +1 → +1 (no move) at kickoff

RosterTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · LA

Rams make Simpson emergency third QB at Denver

Rookie quarterback Ty Simpson is inactive as a coach's decision for the Rams' game at Denver but is designated as the emergency third quarterback. He would only play if the top two quarterbacks were unavailable. ESPN player news

LA since this note: −1 → −1 (no move) at kickoff

Injury Report

Los Angeles Rams

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
S Kamren Kinchens
Tue 5:16 PM
Out → Questionable−0.1 No
WR Puka Nacua
Tue 5:16 PM
Out → Questionable−0.3 No
LT Alaric Jackson
Wed 6:43 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
TE Colby Parkinson
Wed 6:43 PM
Active → Questionable+0.0 Yes
LB Nate Landman
Wed 6:43 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
WR Puka Nacua
Fri 2:30 PM
Questionable → Doubtful+0.3 No
S Kamren Kinchens
Fri 5:54 PM
Questionable → Doubtful+0.1 No
S Kamren Kinchens
Sun 7:27 PM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No
WR Puka Nacua
Sun 7:27 PM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No

Denver Broncos

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
RB J.K. Dobbins
Sun 6:52 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Broncos side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+1 −114−1071.93 49.4%—Sun 8:18 PM
Kalshi— —+1022.02 49.5%—Sun 8:18 PM
DraftKings+1.5 −120−1081.93 49.6%—Sun 8:18 PM
FanDuel+1.5 −122−1061.94 49.6%—Sun 8:18 PM
BetMGM+1 −115−1101.91 50.0%—Sun 8:18 PM
Caesars+1 −114−1081.93 49.9%—Sun 8:18 PM
Fanatics+0.5 −110−1071.93 49.5%—Sun 8:18 PM
BetRivers+1 −113−1071.93 49.2%—Sun 8:18 PM
BetOnline+1 −112−1071.93 49.4%—Sun 8:18 PM
Bovada−1 +100−1051.95 48.9%—Sun 8:18 PM
LowVig+1 −107−1071.93 49.4%—Sun 8:18 PM
MyBookie+1 −115+1002.00 48.1%—Sun 8:18 PM
BetUS+1 −115−1051.95 48.9%—Sun 8:18 PM

Best for LA: Fanatics −0.5 (−110)Best for DEN: DraftKings +1.5 (−120)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Rams side is the mirror image.