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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 Week 3 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 3 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 3 · Sunday, September 27, 4:25 PM ET · Final LV 35, NO 27

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Saints −3 at our first look, −3.5 at kickoff. 12 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Saints lineNew Orleans Saints spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against New Orleans.
−4−3Opening line−3Raiders rule out QB O'Connell atNew OrleansSat 11:35 PM−0.5Closing line−3.5
−4−3Opening line−3Raiders rule out QB O'Connell at New OrleansSat 11:35 PM−0.5Closing line−3.5

Final: LV 35, NO 27. Saints missed the closing number by 11.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3
Raiders rule out QB O'Connell at New OrleansSat Sep 26, 11:35 PM ET-0.5
Closing line−3.5
What moved the Saints moneylineNew Orleans Saints chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward New Orleans.
60%62%64%Opening line59.7% (−148)Raiders rule out QB O'Connell atNew OrleansSat 11:35 PM−183Closing line64.7% (−183)
60%62%64%Opening line59.7% (−148)Raiders rule out QB O'Connell at New OrleansSat 11:35 PM−183Closing line64.7% (−183)

Final: LV 35, NO 27. Saints lost at a 65% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line59.7% (−148)
Raiders rule out QB O'Connell at New OrleansSat Sep 26, 11:35 PM ET64.7% (−183)
Closing line64.7% (−183)

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 12:18 AM · LV

Raiders Beat Saints 35–27

Final: Las Vegas Raiders 35, New Orleans Saints 27. Las Vegas won outright as the underdog; the closing line was Saints −3.5.

LV since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move) at kickoff

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · NO

Saints rule out quarterback Zach Wilson against Raiders

New Orleans listed Zach Wilson as out and inactive for Sunday's home game with Las Vegas. That removes an option at quarterback for the Saints. ESPN player news

NO since this note: −3.5 → −3.5 (no move) at kickoff

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · LV

Raiders rule out QB O'Connell at New Orleans

Las Vegas quarterback Aidan O'Connell has been downgraded from questionable to out for Sunday's game at New Orleans. The Raiders will need another quarterback to start. ESPN player news

LV since this note: +3 → +3.5 (+0.5) at kickoff

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · LV

Raiders list QB O'Connell as questionable for New Orleans trip

Las Vegas tagged quarterback Aidan O'Connell as questionable for Sunday at New Orleans for personal reasons. His availability affects the Raiders' quarterback depth for the game. ESPN player news

LV since this note: +3 → +3.5 (+0.5) at kickoff

Injury Report

Las Vegas Raiders

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
S Treydan Stukes
Sun 5:30 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 No
CB Darien Porter
Tue 5:16 PM
Out → Questionable−0.1 Yes
TE Brock Bowers
Tue 5:16 PM
Out → Questionable−0.1 Yes
LB Nakobe Dean
Wed 5:42 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
LB Kwity Paye
Thu 5:48 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
S Treydan Stukes
Fri 3:11 PM
Questionable → Out+0.1 No

New Orleans Saints

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LT Kelvin Banks Jr.
Mon 11:18 AM
Active → Doubtful+0.3 No
LT Kelvin Banks Jr.
Mon 2:23 PM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No
LT Kelvin Banks Jr.
Wed 1:58 PM
Out → IR0.0 No
RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Wed 5:01 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
LB Chase Young
Wed 6:02 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
DT Nathan Shepherd
Wed 6:02 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Saints side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3.5 −110−2101.48 64.7%—Sun 4:21 PM
Kalshi— —−1821.55 64.5%—Sun 4:21 PM
DraftKings−4.5 −105−2251.44 66.4%—Sun 4:21 PM
FanDuel−3.5 −104−1881.53 62.7%—Sun 4:21 PM
BetMGM−3.5 −112−2101.48 64.7%—Sun 4:21 PM
Caesars−3.5 −113−2051.49 64.6%—Sun 4:21 PM
Fanatics−3.5 −105−1901.53 62.6%—Sun 4:21 PM
BetRivers−3.5 −110−1861.54 61.9%—Sun 4:21 PM
BetOnline−3.5 −115−2101.48 65.5%—Sun 4:21 PM
Bovada−4 −110−2101.48 65.1%—Sun 4:21 PM
LowVig−3.5 −110−2101.48 65.5%—Sun 4:21 PM
MyBookie−4 −110−1961.51 63.7%—Sun 4:21 PM
BetUS−4 −110−2101.48 65.5%—Sun 4:21 PM

Best for LV: DraftKings +4.5 (−115)Best for NO: FanDuel −3.5 (−104)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Raiders side is the mirror image.