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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 Week 3 · Final Edition

Back issue · The Sharp Edition, Week 3 as it stood when the week closed.

Week 3 · Monday, September 28, 8:15 PM ET · Final PHI 7, CHI 27

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

Bears −1.5 at our first look, +3.5 at kickoff. 15 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Bears lineChicago Bears spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Chicago.
−2PK+2+4Opening line−1.5CHI QB Williams ruled outMon 1:00 PM+5CHI QB Bagent questionableTue 3:35 PM+1CHI CB Stevenson questionableFri 6:00 PM+0.5Bagent clears concussion protocol,set to practice SaturdaySat 1:13 PM−1.5Williams out vs. Eagles, hamstringstrain seen as 3-to-4-week issueSun 1:46 PM+0.5Keenum in line to start for Bearsagainst EaglesMon 12:26 AM · possibly−0.5Closing line+3.5
−2PK+2+4Opening line−1.5CHI QB Williams ruled outMon 1:00 PM+5CHI QB Bagent questionableTue 3:35 PM+1CHI CB Stevenson questionableFri 6:00 PM+0.5Bagent clears concussion protocol, set topractice SaturdaySat 1:13 PM−1.5Williams out vs. Eagles, hamstring strain seenas 3-to-4-week issueSun 1:46 PM+0.5Keenum in line to start for Bears againstEaglesMon 12:26 AM · possibly−0.5Closing line+3.5

Final: PHI 7, CHI 27. Bears beat the closing number by 23.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−1.5
CHI QB Williams ruled outMon Sep 21, 1:00 PM ET+5
CHI QB Bagent questionableTue Sep 22, 3:35 PM ET+1
CHI CB Stevenson questionableFri Sep 25, 6:00 PM ET+0.5
Bagent clears concussion protocol, set to practice SaturdaySat Sep 26, 1:13 PM ET-1.5
Williams out vs. Eagles, hamstring strain seen as 3-to-4-week issueSun Sep 27, 1:46 PM ET+0.5
Keenum in line to start for Bears against EaglesMon Sep 28, 12:26 AM ET-0.5
Closing line+3.5
What moved the Bears moneylineChicago Bears chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Chicago.
35%40%45%50%Opening line51.8% (−107)CHI QB Williams ruled outMon 1:00 PM+167CHI QB Bagent questionableTue 3:35 PM+183CHI CB Stevenson questionableFri 6:00 PM+199Bagent clears concussion protocol,set to practice SaturdaySat 1:13 PM+167Williams out vs. Eagles, hamstringstrain seen as 3-to-4-week issueSun 1:46 PM+180Keenum in line to start for Bearsagainst EaglesMon 12:26 AM · possibly+167Price-only move+174Closing line36.5% (+174)
35%40%45%50%Opening line51.8% (−107)CHI QB Williams ruled outMon 1:00 PM+167CHI QB Bagent questionableTue 3:35 PM+183CHI CB Stevenson questionableFri 6:00 PM+199Bagent clears concussion protocol, set topractice SaturdaySat 1:13 PM+167Williams out vs. Eagles, hamstring strain seenas 3-to-4-week issueSun 1:46 PM+180Keenum in line to start for Bears againstEaglesMon 12:26 AM · possibly+167Price-only move+174Closing line36.5% (+174)

Final: PHI 7, CHI 27. Bears won at a 36% closing chance to win.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line51.8% (−107)
CHI QB Williams ruled outMon Sep 21, 1:00 PM ET37.4% (+167)
CHI QB Bagent questionableTue Sep 22, 3:35 PM ET35.3% (+183)
CHI CB Stevenson questionableFri Sep 25, 6:00 PM ET33.4% (+199)
Bagent clears concussion protocol, set to practice SaturdaySat Sep 26, 1:13 PM ET37.5% (+167)
Williams out vs. Eagles, hamstring strain seen as 3-to-4-week issueSun Sep 27, 1:46 PM ET35.7% (+180)
Keenum in line to start for Bears against EaglesMon Sep 28, 12:26 AM ET37.5% (+167)
Price-only move36.5% (+174)
Closing line36.5% (+174)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Weather and quarterback news move this line.
424344Opening line44CHI QB Bagent questionableTue 3:35 PM−2Closing line42
424344Opening line44CHI QB Bagent questionableTue 3:35 PM−2Closing line42

Final: PHI 7, CHI 27. 34 points, under the closing total of 42.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line44
CHI QB Bagent questionableTue Sep 22, 3:35 PM ET-2
Closing line42

Notes

FinalTue Sep 29, 12:18 AM · CHI

Bears Beat Eagles 27–7 With Keenum at Quarterback

Final: Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27. Case Keenum started at quarterback for Chicago in place of Caleb Williams and went 24/34 for 247 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Chicago won outright as the underdog; the closing line was Bears +3.5. The market moved Chicago 5 points over Caleb Williams's absence (−1.5 to +3.5); Bears beat that closing number by 23.5.

CHI since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move) at kickoff

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:24 AM · PHI

Hurts cleared after concussion check, returns at Chicago

Jalen Hurts left the game in Chicago to be checked for a concussion but passed evaluation and was cleared to return. With backup Sam Howell-less depth thinned, his return keeps Philadelphia's offense intact for the rest of the game. ESPN player news

PHI since this note: −3.5 → −3.5 (no move) at kickoff

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:24 AM · PHI

Backup QB McKee inactive for Eagles at Chicago

Philadelphia listed quarterback Tanner McKee as out and inactive for the game at Chicago. That leaves the Eagles without their primary backup behind center. ESPN player news

PHI since this note: −3.5 → −3.5 (no move) at kickoff

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · CHI

Keenum in line to start for Bears against Eagles

Case Keenum is active and expected to start Monday night for Chicago with Caleb Williams out and Tyson Bagent serving as the backup. The Bears will run their offense with a veteran fill-in at quarterback against Philadelphia. ESPN player news

CHI since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move) at kickoff

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · CHI

Bagent cleared, will back up against Philadelphia

Bagent cleared concussion protocol Sunday and is set to be Chicago's second quarterback Monday against Philadelphia, though he remains listed as questionable. With Caleb Williams out, that means Bagent is behind another passer on the depth chart for this game. ESPN player news

CHI since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move) at kickoff

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · CHI

Williams out vs. Eagles, hamstring strain seen as 3-to-4-week issue

Caleb Williams has been ruled out for Monday's game against Philadelphia with a Grade 2 hamstring strain that is expected to keep him out roughly three to four weeks. That leaves Chicago without its starting quarterback for multiple games, with Tyson Bagent in line to play. ESPN player news

CHI since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move) at kickoff

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · CHI

Bagent practices fully, still questionable for Monday

Bears backup quarterback Tyson Bagent took part in Saturday's practice without limitation after a concussion but remains questionable against Philadelphia. With starter Caleb Williams hampered by a hamstring issue, Bagent's availability could decide who takes the snaps. ESPN player news

CHI since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move) at kickoff

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · CHI

Bagent clears concussion protocol, set to practice Saturday

Chicago backup quarterback Tyson Bagent has cleared the concussion protocol and is due back at practice Saturday. With Caleb Williams doubtful due to a hamstring issue, Bagent could be in line to start against Philadelphia. ESPN player news

CHI since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move) at kickoff

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:26 AM · CHI

Bagent questionable, missed Thursday work as Williams ails

Bears backup quarterback Tyson Bagent was a non-participant on Thursday's practice estimate and carries a questionable tag with a concussion. With starter Caleb Williams doubtful, Chicago's quarterback situation for the Philadelphia game is unsettled. ESPN player news

CHI since this note: +4.5 → +3.5 (−1.0) at kickoff

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:26 AM · CHI

Bears QB Williams doubtful with hamstring, sat out Thursday

Caleb Williams did not participate in Thursday's estimated practice and carries a doubtful tag for Chicago's game against Philadelphia. That points to a backup starting at quarterback for the Bears. ESPN player news

CHI since this note: +4.5 → +3.5 (−1.0) at kickoff

Injury Report

Philadelphia Eagles

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
RB Saquon Barkley
Sun 1:45 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
TE Dallas Goedert
Sun 2:26 PM
Active → Questionable+0.2 No
TE Dallas Goedert
Mon 5:48 PM
Questionable → Doubtful+0.3 No
LB Jonathan Greenard
Tue 5:16 PM
Out → Questionable−0.3 Yes
WR DeVonta Smith
Thu 7:09 PM
Active → Questionable+0.4 Yes
S Andrew Mukuba
Thu 7:30 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
EDGE Jalen Carter
Thu 7:30 PM
Active → Questionable+0.4 Yes
TE Dallas Goedert
Sat 4:20 PM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 No

Chicago Bears

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
QB Caleb Williams
Sun 3:48 PM
Active → Questionable+1.9 No
QB Caleb Williams
Mon 1:01 PM
Questionable → Doubtful+3.7 No
QB Case Keenum
Mon 2:44 PM
Out → Returning0.0 Yes
QB Tyson Bagent
Tue 2:33 PM
Active → Questionable+0.0 No
K Cairo Santos
Thu 5:07 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
CB Tyrique Stevenson
Thu 10:33 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 Yes
QB Caleb Williams
Sat 3:19 PM
Doubtful → Out+0.2 No

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Bears side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3.5 −114+1652.65 36.5%—Mon 8:07 PM
Kalshi— —+1742.74 36.5%—Mon 7:57 PM
DraftKings+3.5 −108+1642.64 36.3%—Mon 8:07 PM
FanDuel+3.5 −112+1602.60 37.0%—Mon 8:07 PM
BetMGM— —+1752.75 34.9%—Mon 8:07 PM
Caesars+3.5 −115+1682.68 36.0%—Mon 8:07 PM
Fanatics+3.5 −115+1602.60 36.8%—Mon 8:07 PM
BetRivers+3.5 −108+1652.65 36.1%—Mon 8:07 PM
BetOnline+3.5 −113+1652.65 36.5%—Mon 8:07 PM
Bovada+3.5 −115+1602.60 37.2%—Mon 8:07 PM
LowVig+3.5 −110+1652.65 36.5%—Mon 8:07 PM
MyBookie+3.5 −115+1652.65 36.3%—Mon 8:07 PM
BetUS+3.5 −115+1632.63 36.7%—Mon 8:07 PM

Best for PHI: Caesars −3.5 (−105)Best for CHI: DraftKings +3.5 (−108)

Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Eagles side is the mirror image.