Week 3 · Thursday, September 24, 8:15 PM ET · Final ATL 35, GB 14
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Packers −6.5 at our first look, −4.5 at kickoff. 10 injury reports on file.
Line Movement
Final: ATL 35, GB 14. Packers missed the closing number by 25.5.
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | −6.5 | |
| ATL QB Penix Jr. upgraded | Wed Sep 23, 4:20 PM ET | +1.5 |
| GB G Banks ruled out | Thu Sep 24, 1:27 AM ET | +0.5 |
| Closing line | −4.5 |
Final: ATL 35, GB 14. Packers lost at a 68% closing chance to win.
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 71.8% (−255) | |
| ATL QB Penix Jr. upgraded | Wed Sep 23, 4:20 PM ET | 65.4% (−189) |
| GB G Banks ruled out | Thu Sep 24, 1:27 AM ET | 63.5% (−174) |
| Less than the spread implies | 67.9% (−212) | |
| Closing line | 67.9% (−212) |
Notes
Falcons Beat Packers 35–14
Final: Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14. Atlanta won outright as the underdog; the closing line was Packers −4.5. The market moved Atlanta 2 points over Michael Penix Jr.'s absence (+6.5 to +4.5); Falcons beat that closing number by 25.5.
ATL since this note: +4.5 → +4.5 (no move) at kickoff
Falcons make Cooper Rush inactive at Green Bay
Atlanta listed quarterback Cooper Rush as inactive for Thursday's game at Green Bay as a coaching decision rather than an injury. It thins the Falcons' quarterback depth behind their starter for that game. ESPN player news
ATL since this note: +4.5 → +4.5 (no move) at kickoff
Injury Report
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE Brandon Dorlus Sun 3:48 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.2 | Yes |
| QB Michael Penix Jr. Mon 5:28 PM |
Out → Returning | −3.9 | Yes |
| CB A.J. Terrell Jr. Tue 1:31 PM |
Active → IR | +0.3 | No |
| QB Tua Tagovailoa Tue 4:15 PM |
Out → Returning | −0.7 | No |
| LB Samson Ebukam Wed 4:20 PM |
Active → Out | +0.2 | No |
Green Bay Packers
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| CB Brandon Cisse Mon 5:28 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | Yes |
| LB Edgerrin Cooper Mon 5:28 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | Yes |
| RT Zach Bako-Bewele Tue 2:53 PM |
Questionable → Out | +0.1 | No |
| DT Javon Hargrave Tue 5:16 PM |
Out → Questionable | −0.1 | Yes |
| G Aaron Banks Wed 4:20 PM |
Questionable → Out | +0.1 | No |
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Packers side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | −4.5 | −110 | −240 | 1.42 | 67.9% | — | Thu 8:14 PM |
| Kalshi | — | — | −217 | 1.46 | 68.5% | — | Thu 8:14 PM |
| DraftKings | −4.5 | −112 | −230 | 1.43 | 66.9% | — | Thu 8:14 PM |
| FanDuel | −4.5 | −115 | −240 | 1.42 | 67.8% | — | Thu 8:14 PM |
| BetMGM | −4.5 | −110 | −250 | 1.40 | 68.9% | — | Thu 8:14 PM |
| Caesars | −4.5 | −115 | −240 | 1.42 | 67.9% | — | Thu 8:14 PM |
| Fanatics | −5 | −110 | −245 | 1.41 | 68.1% | — | Thu 8:14 PM |
| BetRivers | −5 | −109 | −265 | 1.38 | 69.2% | — | Thu 8:14 PM |
| BetOnline | −4.5 | −108 | −240 | 1.42 | 67.9% | — | Thu 8:14 PM |
| Bovada | −5 | −110 | −235 | 1.43 | 67.4% | — | Thu 8:14 PM |
| LowVig | −4.5 | −108 | −240 | 1.42 | 67.9% | — | Thu 8:14 PM |
| MyBookie | −5 | −110 | −252 | 1.40 | 68.9% | — | Thu 8:14 PM |
| BetUS | −4.5 | −110 | −240 | 1.42 | 68.1% | — | Thu 8:14 PM |
Best for ATL: Fanatics +5 (−110)Best for GB: BetMGM −4.5 (−110)
Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Falcons side is the mirror image.