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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 1 · Early Edition

College football · Week 1 · Saturday, September 5, 7:00 PM ET · Final Arkansas State 24, Memphis 42

Arkansas State at Memphis

Memphis −10 at our first look, −11 at kickoff. Sun Belt vs. American Athletic.

Conditions · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium: At kickoff: 98°F, wind 6 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Arkansas State 0.0 · Memphis 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Memphis.

Landed: Arkansas State 24, Memphis 42. Memphis covered the closing line (Memphis −11). The move toward Memphis was right. 66 points, over the closing total of 52.5.

Arkansas State Red Wolves 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Memphis Tigers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Memphis lineMemphis Tigers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Memphis.
−11−10−9Opening line−10Market move, no reported newsTue 7:55 PM+1Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−2Closing line−11
−11−10−9Opening line−10Market move, no reported newsTue 7:55 PM+1Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−2Closing line−11

Final: Arkansas State 24, Memphis 42. Memphis beat the closing number by 7.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−10
Market move, no reported newsTue Aug 25, 7:55 PM ET+1
Reaction to last week's gameSun Aug 30, 11:55 AM ET-2
Closing line−11
What moved the Memphis moneylineMemphis Tigers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Memphis.
−257−285−317−355Opening line−308Market move, no reported newsTue 7:55 PM−262Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−329Price-only move−355Closing line−355
−257−285−317−355Opening line−308Market move, no reported newsTue 7:55 PM−262Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−329Price-only move−355Closing line−355
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line75.5% (−308)
Market move, no reported newsTue Aug 25, 7:55 PM ET72.4% (−262)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Aug 30, 11:55 AM ET76.7% (−329)
Price-only move78.0% (−355)
Closing line78.0% (−355)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
5253545556Opening line55.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−3.5Market move, no reported newsThu 3:55 AM+0.5Closing line52.5
5253545556Opening line55.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−3.5Market move, no reported newsThu 3:55 AM+0.5Closing line52.5

Final: 66 points, over the closing total of 52.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line55.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Aug 30, 11:55 AM ET-3.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 3, 3:55 AM ET+0.5
Closing line52.5

Every Book · Memphis side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−11 −110−4401.23 78.0%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−10.5 −108−3951.25 76.6%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−10.5 −112−4501.22 78.3%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−10.5 −110−4501.22 78.0%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−10.5 −113−4401.23 78.2%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics−11 −110−4501.22 78.3%52.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−11 −113−4801.21 78.5%52.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−11 −104−4251.24 77.8%52Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−10.5 −110−4401.23 77.8%52Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−11 +100−4251.24 77.8%52Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−11 −110−4611.22 78.3%53Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−11 −110−4301.23 78.0%52.5Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.