How we work
Is It Priced In?
News moves betting lines. We put a number on each piece of it, show exactly what every book did, and answer whether the market has priced it in.
Every report starts as a fact: a team or ESPN changes a starter's status. We record when it changed and which game it affects, and link the source. We never reprint anyone's reporting.
Then we ask what the player is worth. For quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends we rate current form from expected points added, weighting recent games (playoffs included) far more than old seasons, and rank him among this season's starters. A starting quarterback is worth three to seven points a game over a replacement; other positions sit lower on the same ladder. What matters is the drop to the man who replaces him, so we subtract his backup's value. Linemen, linebackers and defensive backs use position values until we can measure them as well.
A status is a probability, not a certainty. From every listed starter this season: Questionable players missed 35% of their games and Doubtful players 100%. We use those rates, re-measured every day as results come in (blended with a starting estimate until a season's worth of games is in), and when a status changes we count only the new information: going from Questionable to Out is the rest of the way, not the whole trip.
The market's answer is the consensus spread (the median across U.S. sportsbooks and the Kalshi exchange, which prices the same games independently) just before the news, compared with an hour later and at kickoff. We show every book separately, as a spread, American odds, decimal odds and a win probability with the bookmaker's margin removed, plus Kalshi's exchange price.
Then the question on every story: is it priced in? If the consensus line has moved between three-quarters and about one-and-a-third of our number, it's priced in. Less than a quarter, or the wrong way, and it isn't (yet). In between, partly. More than that, the market has moved past our number. Small news, worth under a quarter of a point, gets no verdict.
We check ourselves too: after every game we look at who actually played, and the rates above are refreshed from those results.
What we publish is line movement, not line data. The prices we show come from the betting market; what is ours is the work on top of them: what the news was worth, how far the market moved, what moved it, and whether it was priced in.
This is information, not betting advice, and nothing here guarantees a result. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.