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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Friday, October 2, 2026 Week 4

Market Buffalo Bills · Week 4

Total rises 1.5 for Patriots at Bills ahead of the news

What moved the Bills lineBuffalo Bills spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Buffalo.
−7−6−5Opening line−5.5NE EDGE Barmore ruled outSun 5:53 PM−1.5BUF QB Allen questionableMon 2:55 PMmarket moved 3h before the report+0.5NE CB Gonzalez ruled outThu 2:44 PM−0.5Line now−7
−7−6−5Opening line−5.5NE EDGE Barmore ruled outSun 5:53 PM−1.5BUF QB Allen questionableMon 2:55 PM · market moved 3h before the report+0.5NE CB Gonzalez ruled outThu 2:44 PM−0.5Line now−7
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−5.5
NE EDGE Barmore ruled outSun Sep 27, 5:53 PM ET-1.5
BUF QB Allen questionableMon Sep 28, 2:55 PM ET+0.5
NE CB Gonzalez ruled outThu Oct 1, 2:44 PM ET-0.5
Line now−7

The consensus total on Patriots at Bills has moved from 48.5 to 50, with 11 of 11 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The market started moving 1h 04m before the report: Christian Gonzalez (CB2) Questionable to Out.

The game file

Top Stories

Injury

Bears will be without Caleb Williams against Jets

Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams has been ruled out for Sunday's home game with the Jets because of a hamstring injury. The Bears will start a backup at quarterback...

Injury

Daniels out again; Mariota set to start for Washington vs. Colts

Washington has ruled out Jayden Daniels for Sunday against Indianapolis with a dislocated left elbow, his second straight missed game. Marcus Mariota is in line to...

Injury

Vikings will be without Jefferson against Miami

Minnesota's No. 1 receiver Justin Jefferson has been ruled out for Sunday's home game with the Dolphins. His absence removes the Vikings' top passing-game threat.

The Wire

InjuryFri 2:45 PM · LA vs PHI

Rams to have Nacua at Philadelphia; Donald sidelined

Aaron Donald will not play against the Eagles, while Puka Nacua is expected to be available. Nacua's return boosts the Rams' passing game, but the defense stays without Donald. ProFootballTalk

LA since this note: −3.5 → −3.5 (no move)

InjuryFri 2:36 PM · MIN vs MIA

Vikings Receiver Justin Jefferson Ruled Out

Worth +0.2 pts against Minnesota. Line −10.5 → −10.5.

InjuryFri 2:32 PM · MIN vs MIA

Vikings will be without Jefferson against Miami

Minnesota's No. 1 receiver Justin Jefferson has been ruled out for Sunday's home game with the Dolphins. His absence removes the Vikings' top passing-game threat. ProFootballTalk

MIN since this note: −10.5 → −10.5 (no move)

InjuryFri 2:15 PM · BUF vs NE

Bills Edge Rusher T.J. Sanders Listed Doubtful

Worth +0.2 pts against Buffalo. Line −7 → −7.

InjuryFri 1:55 PM · NE vs BUF

Patriots Edge Rusher Christian Barmore Ruled Out

Worth +0.2 pts against New England. Line +7 → +7.

InjuryFri 1:55 PM · NE vs BUF

Patriots Cornerback Christian Gonzalez Ruled Out

Not priced in

Worth +0.3 pts against New England. Line +7 → +7.

InjuryFri 1:55 PM · BAL vs TEN

Ravens Linebacker Trey Hendrickson Ruled Out

Worth +0.1 pts against Baltimore. Line −11.5 → −11.5.

InjuryFri 1:44 PM · BAL vs TEN

Ravens lose pass rusher Hendrickson for Titans game after finger surgery

Trey Hendrickson had a procedure on a broken finger and will miss Baltimore's Week 4 game against Tennessee. The absence is expected to be brief, with a return anticipated soon after, but it thins the Ravens' pass rush on Sunday. ProFootballTalk

BAL since this note: −11.5 → −11.5 (no move)

InjuryFri 1:35 PM · CHI vs NYJ

Bears Quarterback Caleb Williams Ruled Out

Worth +0.1 pts against Chicago. Line −3.5 → −3.5.

InjuryFri 1:25 PM · NE vs BUF

Patriots to play Bills without Gonzalez and Barmore

New England has ruled out cornerback Christian Gonzalez and defensive tackle Christian Barmore for Sunday's game at Buffalo. Losing both defensive starters weakens the Patriots against Buffalo's pass and run game. ProFootballTalk

NE since this note: +7 → +7 (no move)

InjuryFri 1:18 PM · CAR vs DET

Coker's status for Lions game hinges on Saturday workout

Carolina's top receiver Jalen Coker practiced Friday but the team will evaluate him again in a Saturday workout before deciding on his availability against Detroit. With Legette and Lewis already out, Coker's status is pivotal for the Panthers' passing game. Carolina Panthers (team site)

CAR since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move)

InjuryFri 1:14 PM · WAS vs IND

Commanders Receiver Terry McLaurin Listed Questionable

Worth +0.1 pts against Washington. Line +4 → +4.

InjuryFri 1:14 PM · CHI vs NYJ

Bears will be without Caleb Williams against Jets

Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams has been ruled out for Sunday's home game with the Jets because of a hamstring injury. The Bears will start a backup at quarterback after the coaching staff had withheld its plan earlier in the week. ESPN player news

CHI since this note: −3.5 → −3.5 (no move)

InjuryFri 1:10 PM · WAS vs IND

McLaurin a late injury report addition, questionable vs Colts

Washington added receiver Terry McLaurin to its injury report late in the week and listed him as questionable for Sunday's game against Indianapolis in London. His availability matters with Marcus Mariota expected to start at quarterback. ProFootballTalk

WAS since this note: +4 → +4 (no move)

InjuryFri 12:57 PM · BAL vs TEN

Stanley sits out Friday work, Ravens left tackle spot in doubt vs Titans

Ronnie Stanley did not practice Friday with a toe issue after being limited earlier in the week. The Ravens' starting left tackle is trending the wrong way ahead of Sunday's game against Tennessee. Baltimore Ravens (team site)

BAL since this note: −11.5 → −11.5 (no move)

InjuryFri 12:54 PM · TB vs GB

Buccaneers Linebacker Rueben Bain Jr. Ruled Out

Worth +0.1 pts against Tampa Bay. Line +3.5 → +3.5.

InjuryFri 12:54 PM · TB vs GB

Buccaneers Cornerback Benjamin Morrison Ruled Out

Worth +0.1 pts against Tampa Bay. Line +3.5 → +3.5.

MarketFri 12:50 PM · BUF vs NE

Total rises 1.5 for Patriots at Bills ahead of the news

The consensus total on Patriots at Bills has moved from 48.5 to 50, with 11 of 11 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The market started moving 1h 04m before the report: Christian Gonzalez (CB2) Questionable to Out.

BUF since this note: −7 → −7 (no move)

InjuryFri 12:33 PM · DAL vs HOU

Cowboys Linebacker DeMarvion Overshown Ruled Out

Little change to his value. Line +3 → +3.

InjuryFri 12:33 PM · DAL vs HOU

Cowboys Cornerback Cobie Durant Ruled Out

Little change to his value. Line +3 → +3.

InjuryFri 12:30 PM · CAR vs DET

Panthers rule out Legette and Lewis for Lions matchup

Carolina has ruled out wide receiver Xavier Legette and left guard Damien Lewis for Monday's game against Detroit. Losing a starting guard weakens pass protection and thins the receiving group. Carolina Panthers (team site)

CAR since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move)

RosterFri 12:01 PM · LA vs PHI

Rams cut punt returner Xavier Smith before Eagles trip

Los Angeles waived receiver Xavier Smith, who had handled punt return duties for the Rams this season and last. The Rams will need a new returner in Philadelphia. Los Angeles Rams (team site)

LA since this note: −3.5 → −3.5 (no move)

InjuryFri 11:58 AM · GB vs TB

Packers DT Brinson out for extended stretch with groin injury

Green Bay defensive tackle Warren Brinson, who already missed the first three games with a calf problem, is expected to be sidelined for a significant period with a groin injury. That keeps the interior line short on depth at Tampa Bay. ProFootballTalk

GB since this note: −3.5 → −3.5 (no move)

InjuryFri 11:32 AM · NYJ vs CHI

Jets Tight End Mason Taylor Ruled Out

Little change to his value. Line +3.5 → +3.5.

InjuryFri 11:24 AM · NYJ vs CHI

Jets lose Hall, Mitchell, Taylor and Parham for Bears trip

New York ruled out running back Breece Hall, receiver Adonai Mitchell, tight end Mason Taylor and left guard Dylan Parham for Sunday's game at Chicago. That strips the Jets of their lead back, a starting tight end and an offensive line starter. ESPN

NYJ since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move)

InjuryFri 11:11 AM · NYJ vs CHI

Jets Receiver Adonai Mitchell Ruled Out

Little change to his value. Line +3.5 → +3.5.

InjuryFri 11:11 AM · NYJ vs CHI

Jets Running Back Breece Hall Ruled Out

Little change to his value. Line +3.5 → +3.5.

InjuryFri 11:11 AM · NYJ vs CHI

Jets Guard Dylan Parham Ruled Out

Little change to his value. Line +3.5 → +3.5.

InjuryFri 11:11 AM · NYJ vs CHI

Jets Linebacker Kiko Mauigoa Ruled Out

Little change to his value. Line +3.5 → +3.5.

InjuryFri 10:30 AM · GB vs TB

Reed to miss rest of season after neck surgery

Green Bay receiver Jayden Reed will have neck surgery that ends his season. The Packers must redistribute his targets starting with Sunday's game at Tampa Bay. Green Bay Packers (team site)

GB since this note: −3.5 → −3.5 (no move)