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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 1 · Early Edition

College football · Week 1 · Saturday, September 5, 12:00 PM ET · Final East Carolina 10, Alabama 48

East Carolina at 6Alabama

Alabama −28.5 at our first look, −28 at kickoff. American Athletic vs. SEC.

Conditions · Bryant-Denny Stadium: At kickoff: 92°F, wind 6 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: East Carolina 0.0 · Alabama 0.0. Market: moved 0.5 toward East Carolina.

Landed: East Carolina 10, Alabama 48. Alabama covered the closing line (Alabama −28). The move toward East Carolina was wrong. 58 points, over the closing total of 52.5.

East Carolina Pirates 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Alabama Crimson Tide 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Alabama lineAlabama Crimson Tide spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Alabama.
−29−28Opening line−28.5Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+0.5Closing line−28
−29−28Opening line−28.5Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+0.5Closing line−28

Final: East Carolina 10, Alabama 48. Alabama beat the closing number by 10.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−28.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Aug 31, 5:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−28
What moved the Alabama moneylineAlabama Crimson Tide moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Alabama.
−1567−1900−2400Opening line−2028Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−2028Price-only move−1654Closing line−1654
−1567−1900−2400Opening line−2028Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−2028Price-only move−1654Closing line−1654
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line95.3% (−2028)
Market move, no reported newsMon Aug 31, 5:55 PM ET95.3% (−2028)
Price-only move94.3% (−1654)
Closing line94.3% (−1654)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
525354Opening line54Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−1.5Closing line52.5
525354Opening line54Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−1.5Closing line52.5

Final: 58 points, over the closing total of 52.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54
Market move, no reported newsMon Aug 31, 1:55 PM ET-1.5
Closing line52.5

Every Book · Alabama side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−28 −110−55001.02 94.3%52.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−27.5 −118−65001.02 95.4%52.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−28.5 +100−45001.02 94.3%52.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−27.5 −112−50001.02 95.1%52.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−28 −114—— —52.5Sat 11:55 AM
Fanatics−28 −110−50001.02 95.4%52.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−28.5 −110—— —52.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−28 −109−60001.02 94.3%52.5Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−28 −110−75001.01 93.7%52.5Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−28 −105−60001.02 94.3%52.5Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−28 −110−50001.02 93.4%52.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−28 −110—— —52.5Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.