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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 1 · Early Edition

College football · Week 1 · Saturday, September 5, 7:00 PM ET · Final Florida International 9, South Florida 19

Florida International at South Florida

South Florida −13.5 at our first look, −14.5 at kickoff. Conference USA vs. American Athletic.

Conditions · Raymond James Stadium: At kickoff: 86°F, wind 6 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Florida International 0.0 · South Florida 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward South Florida.

Landed: Florida International 9, South Florida 19. Florida International covered the closing line (South Florida −14.5). The move toward South Florida was wrong. 28 points, under the closing total of 53.

Florida International Panthers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

South Florida Bulls 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the South Florida lineSouth Florida Bulls spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against South Florida.
−15−14−13Opening line−13.5Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−1Closing line−14.5
−15−14−13Opening line−13.5Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−1Closing line−14.5

Final: Florida International 9, South Florida 19. South Florida missed the closing number by 4.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−13.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Aug 31, 5:55 PM ET-1
Closing line−14.5
What moved the South Florida moneylineSouth Florida Bulls moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward South Florida.
−426−456−488−525Opening line−421Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−435Price-only move−499Closing line−499
−426−456−488−525Opening line−421Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−435Price-only move−499Closing line−499
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line80.8% (−421)
Market move, no reported newsMon Aug 31, 5:55 PM ET81.3% (−435)
Price-only move83.3% (−499)
Closing line83.3% (−499)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
535455Opening line54.5Market move, no reported newsSun 11:55 AM−1.5Closing line53
535455Opening line54.5Market move, no reported newsSun 11:55 AM−1.5Closing line53

Final: 28 points, under the closing total of 53.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.5
Market move, no reported newsSun Aug 30, 11:55 AM ET-1.5
Closing line53

Every Book · South Florida side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−14.5 −110−6501.15 83.3%53Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−14.5 −105−6501.15 83.2%53.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−14.5 −112−6901.14 83.5%53.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−14.5 −108−6501.15 83.3%53.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−14.5 −109−6751.15 83.4%53Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics−14.5 −110−6501.15 83.3%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−14.5 −110−8351.12 83.8%53Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−14.5 −110−6501.15 83.3%53Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−14.5 −105−6501.15 82.7%53Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−14.5 −106−6501.15 83.3%53Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−14.5 −110−6991.14 83.3%53.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−14.5 −110−6501.15 83.3%53Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.