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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 1 · Early Edition

College football · Week 1 · Friday, September 4, 9:00 PM ET · Final Fresno State 0, USC 39

Fresno State at 19USC

USC −23 at our first look, −21.5 at kickoff. Pac-12 vs. Big Ten.

Conditions · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum: At kickoff: 76°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Fresno State 0.0 · USC 0.0. Market: moved 1.5 toward Fresno State.

Landed: Fresno State 0, USC 39. USC covered the closing line (USC −21.5). The move toward Fresno State was wrong. 39 points, under the closing total of 51.

Fresno State Bulldogs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

USC Trojans 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the USC lineUSC Trojans spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against USC.
−23−22−21Opening line−23Market move, no reported newsThu 9:55 PM+0.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 11:55 PM+1Closing line−21.5
−23−22−21Opening line−23Market move, no reported newsThu 9:55 PM+0.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 11:55 PM+1Closing line−21.5

Final: Fresno State 0, USC 39. USC beat the closing number by 17.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−23
Market move, no reported newsThu Aug 27, 9:55 PM ET+0.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Aug 29, 11:55 PM ET+1
Closing line−21.5
What moved the USC moneylineUSC Trojans moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward USC.
−1150−1329Opening line−1289Market move, no reported newsThu 9:55 PM−1289Reaction to last week's gameSat 11:55 PM−1289Closing line−1251
−1150−1329Opening line−1289Market move, no reported newsThu 9:55 PM−1289Reaction to last week's gameSat 11:55 PM−1289Closing line−1251
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line92.8% (−1289)
Market move, no reported newsThu Aug 27, 9:55 PM ET92.8% (−1289)
Reaction to last week's gameSat Aug 29, 11:55 PM ET92.8% (−1289)
Closing line92.6% (−1251)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
5152Opening line51.5Market move, no reported newsMon 7:55 PM−0.5Closing line51
5152Opening line51.5Market move, no reported newsMon 7:55 PM−0.5Closing line51

Final: 39 points, under the closing total of 51.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line51.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Aug 31, 7:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line51

Every Book · USC side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−21.5 −111−27001.04 92.6%51Fri 7:55 PM
DraftKings−21.5 −112−18001.06 91.2%51.5Fri 7:55 PM
FanDuel−21.5 −114−30001.03 92.6%51.5Fri 7:55 PM
BetMGM−21.5 −108−20001.05 92.5%51.5Fri 7:55 PM
Caesars−21.5 −112−35001.03 92.7%51.5Fri 7:55 PM
Fanatics−21.5 −110−22001.05 92.6%51Fri 5:55 PM
BetRivers−21.5 −112−50001.02 93.2%51.5Fri 7:55 PM
BetOnline−21.5 −112−27001.04 92.6%51Fri 7:55 PM
Bovada−21.5 −110−19001.05 90.5%51Fri 7:55 PM
LowVig−21.5 −108−27001.04 92.6%51Fri 7:55 PM
MyBookie−21.5 −110−25491.04 92.0%51Fri 7:55 PM
BetUS−21.5 −110−27001.04 92.7%51Fri 7:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.