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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 1 · Early Edition

College football · Week 1 · Saturday, September 5, 3:30 PM ET · Final Marshall 0, Penn State 45

Marshall at Penn State

Penn State −24.5 at our first look, −23.5 at kickoff. Sun Belt vs. Big Ten.

Conditions · Beaver Stadium: At kickoff: 76°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Marshall 0.0 · Penn State 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Marshall.

Landed: Marshall 0, Penn State 45. Penn State covered the closing line (Penn State −23.5). The move toward Marshall was wrong. 45 points, under the closing total of 52.

Marshall Thundering Herd 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Penn State Nittany Lions 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Penn State linePenn State Nittany Lions spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Penn State.
−25−24−23Opening line−24.5Market move, no reported newsTue 5:55 PM+1Closing line−23.5
−25−24−23Opening line−24.5Market move, no reported newsTue 5:55 PM+1Closing line−23.5

Final: Marshall 0, Penn State 45. Penn State beat the closing number by 21.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−24.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 1, 5:55 PM ET+1
Closing line−23.5
What moved the Penn State moneylinePenn State Nittany Lions moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Penn State.
−1329Opening line−1308Market move, no reported newsTue 5:55 PM−1308Closing line−1308
−1329Opening line−1308Market move, no reported newsTue 5:55 PM−1308Closing line−1308
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line92.9% (−1308)
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 1, 5:55 PM ET92.9% (−1308)
Closing line92.9% (−1308)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
52535455Opening line54.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−2.5Closing line52
52535455Opening line54.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−2.5Closing line52

Final: 45 points, under the closing total of 52.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Aug 31, 11:55 AM ET-2.5
Closing line52

Every Book · Penn State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−23.5 −110−30001.03 92.9%52Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−23.5 −105−18001.06 91.2%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−23.5 −108−40001.02 93.6%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−23 −115−25001.04 93.1%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−23.5 −109—— —52.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics−23.5 −110−25001.04 93.1%52Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−23.5 −110−50001.02 93.6%52Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−23.5 −109−30001.03 92.9%52Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−23 −110−25001.04 91.4%52Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−23.5 −105−30001.03 92.9%52Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−23 −110−30301.03 92.5%52Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−23.5 −110−26001.04 92.6%52Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.