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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 1 · Early Edition

College football · Week 1 · Monday, September 7, 7:30 PM ET · Final SMU 27, Florida State 24

24SMU at Florida State

Florida State +2.5 at our first look, +2.5 at kickoff. ACC game.

Conditions · Doak Campbell Stadium: At kickoff: 90°F, wind 6 mph (gusts 18), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: SMU 0.0 · Florida State 0.0. Market: line unchanged.

Landed: SMU 27, Florida State 24. SMU covered the closing line (Florida State +2.5). 51 points, under the closing total of 54.5.

SMU Mustangs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Florida State Seminoles 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Florida State lineFlorida State Seminoles spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Florida State.
+2+3Opening line+2.5Market move, no reported newsWed 3:55 PM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+0.5Closing line+2.5
+2+3Opening line+2.5Market move, no reported newsWed 3:55 PM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+0.5Closing line+2.5

Final: SMU 27, Florida State 24. Florida State missed the closing number by 0.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+2.5
Market move, no reported newsWed Aug 26, 3:55 PM ET-0.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Aug 30, 1:55 AM ET+0.5
Closing line+2.5
What moved the Florida State moneylineFlorida State Seminoles moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Florida State.
+133+127+122+117Opening line+124Market move, no reported newsWed 3:55 PM+116Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+124Price-only move+133Closing line+133
+133+127+122+117Opening line+124Market move, no reported newsWed 3:55 PM+116Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+124Price-only move+133Closing line+133
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line44.7% (+124)
Market move, no reported newsWed Aug 26, 3:55 PM ET46.2% (+116)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Aug 30, 1:55 AM ET44.7% (+124)
Price-only move42.9% (+133)
Closing line42.9% (+133)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
535455Opening line53Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+0.5Market move, no reported newsWed 3:55 AM+1Closing line54.5
535455Opening line53Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+0.5Market move, no reported newsWed 3:55 AM+1Closing line54.5

Final: 51 points, under the closing total of 54.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line53
Reaction to last week's gameSun Aug 30, 1:55 AM ET+0.5
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 2, 3:55 AM ET+1
Closing line54.5

Every Book · Florida State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+2.5 −102+1252.25 42.9%54.5Mon 5:55 PM
DraftKings+2.5 −102+1242.24 42.8%54.5Mon 5:55 PM
FanDuel+2.5 −104+1202.20 43.5%54.5Mon 5:55 PM
BetMGM+3 −115+1252.25 42.9%54.5Mon 5:55 PM
Caesars+2.5 −102+1242.24 42.8%54.5Mon 5:55 PM
Fanatics+2.5 +100+1252.25 42.6%54.5Mon 5:55 PM
BetRivers+2.5 −109+1172.17 43.6%55Mon 5:55 PM
BetOnline+2.5 +105+1292.29 42.2%55Mon 5:55 PM
Bovada+3 −120+1252.25 42.9%54.5Mon 5:55 PM
LowVig+2.5 +109+1292.29 42.2%55Mon 5:55 PM
MyBookie+2.5 +100+1202.20 43.3%55Mon 5:55 PM
BetUS+3 −115+1252.25 42.9%55Mon 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.