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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 1 · Early Edition

College football · Week 1 · Saturday, September 5, 3:30 PM ET · Final Texas State 7, Texas 59

Texas State at 1Texas

Texas −30.5 at our first look, −29.5 at kickoff. Pac-12 vs. SEC.

Conditions · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium: At kickoff: 96°F, wind 5 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Texas State 0.0 · Texas 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Texas State.

Landed: Texas State 7, Texas 59. Texas covered the closing line (Texas −29.5). The move toward Texas State was wrong. 66 points, over the closing total of 59.5.

Texas State Bobcats 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Texas Longhorns 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Texas lineTexas Longhorns spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Texas.
−31−30−29Opening line−30.5Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+1Closing line−29.5
−31−30−29Opening line−30.5Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+1Closing line−29.5

Final: Texas State 7, Texas 59. Texas beat the closing number by 22.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−30.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Aug 31, 5:55 PM ET+1
Closing line−29.5
What moved the Texas moneylineTexas Longhorns moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Texas.
−1900−2400−3233Opening line−2074Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−2074Price-only move−2603Closing line−2603
−1900−2400−3233Opening line−2074Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−2074Price-only move−2603Closing line−2603
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line95.4% (−2074)
Market move, no reported newsMon Aug 31, 5:55 PM ET95.4% (−2074)
Price-only move96.3% (−2603)
Closing line96.3% (−2603)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
5960Opening line60Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−0.5Closing line59.5
5960Opening line60Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−0.5Closing line59.5

Final: 66 points, over the closing total of 59.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line60
Market move, no reported newsMon Aug 31, 5:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line59.5

Every Book · Texas side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−29.5 −110−100001.01 96.3%59.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−29.5 −110−90001.01 96.3%59.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−29.5 −110−80001.01 95.8%60.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−29.5 −108−100001.01 96.3%60.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−29.5 −110—— —59.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics−29.5 −110−80001.01 96.6%59.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−29.5 −112—— —59.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−29.5 −110—— —59.5Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−29.5 −110−100001.01 96.3%60Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−29.5 −106—— —59.5Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−29.5 −110−100991.01 94.1%60Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−29.5 −110—— —60Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.