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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 1 · Early Edition

College football · Week 1 · Saturday, September 5, 10:30 PM ET · Final Western Kentucky 14, Nevada 49

Western Kentucky at Nevada

Nevada +2.5 at our first look, PK at kickoff. Conference USA vs. Mountain West.

Conditions · Mackay Stadium: At kickoff: 65°F, wind 17 mph (gusts 26), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Western Kentucky 0.0 · Nevada 0.0. Market: moved 2.5 toward Nevada.

Landed: Western Kentucky 14, Nevada 49. Nevada covered the closing line (Nevada PK). The move toward Nevada was right. 63 points, over the closing total of 51.5.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Nevada Wolf Pack 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Nevada lineNevada Wolf Pack spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Nevada.
PK+1+2+3Opening line+2.5Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 AM−2.5Closing linePK
PK+1+2+3Opening line+2.5Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 AM−2.5Closing linePK

Final: Western Kentucky 14, Nevada 49. Nevada beat the closing number by 35.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+2.5
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 2, 11:55 AM ET-2.5
Closing linePK
What moved the Nevada moneylineNevada Wolf Pack moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Nevada.
+127+117+108−100Opening line+127Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 AM+104Price-only move+101Closing line+101
+127+117+108−100Opening line+127Market move, no reported newsWed 11:55 AM+104Price-only move+101Closing line+101
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line44.0% (+127)
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 2, 11:55 AM ET49.1% (+104)
Price-only move49.7% (+101)
Closing line49.7% (+101)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
515253Opening line53Market move, no reported newsWed 9:55 AM−1.5Closing line51.5
515253Opening line53Market move, no reported newsWed 9:55 AM−1.5Closing line51.5

Final: 63 points, over the closing total of 51.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line53
Market move, no reported newsWed Aug 26, 9:55 AM ET-1.5
Closing line51.5

Every Book · Nevada side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
ConsensusPK −112−1081.93 49.7%51.5Sat 9:55 PM
DraftKings+1.5 −118−1081.93 49.6%51.5Sat 9:55 PM
FanDuel+1.5 −115−1081.93 49.7%51.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetMGM+1 −120−1101.91 50.2%51.5Sat 9:55 PM
Caesars+1.5 −118−1071.93 49.7%51.5Sat 9:55 PM
Fanatics+1 −115−1101.91 50.0%52Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−0.5 −113−1131.88 50.3%52Sat 9:55 PM
BetOnlinePK −110—— —51Sat 9:55 PM
Bovada−1 −105−1151.87 51.1%51.5Sat 9:55 PM
LowVigPK +100—— —51Sat 9:55 PM
MyBookie+1 −110−1081.93 49.4%51.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetUSPK −110—— —51Sat 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.