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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 2 · Early Edition

College football · Week 2 · Saturday, September 12, 3:30 PM ET · Final Alabama 45, Kentucky 17

6Alabama at Kentucky

Kentucky +10.5 at our first look, +9 at kickoff. SEC game.

Conditions · Kroger Field: At kickoff: 79°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Alabama 0.0 · Kentucky 0.0. Market: moved 1.5 toward Kentucky.

Landed: Alabama 45, Kentucky 17. Alabama covered the closing line (Kentucky +9). The move toward Kentucky was wrong. 62 points, over the closing total of 47.

Alabama Crimson Tide 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Kentucky Wildcats 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Kentucky lineKentucky Wildcats spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Kentucky.
+9+10+11Opening line+10.5Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−1Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM−0.5Closing line+9
+9+10+11Opening line+10.5Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−1Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM−0.5Closing line+9

Final: Alabama 45, Kentucky 17. Kentucky missed the closing number by 19.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+10.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 3, 5:55 PM ET-1
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 5, 9:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line+9
What moved the Kentucky moneylineKentucky Wildcats moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Kentucky.
+317+300+285+270+257Opening line+297Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM+261Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM+256Less than the spread implies+308Closing line+308
+317+300+285+270+257Opening line+297Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM+261Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM+256Less than the spread implies+308Closing line+308
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line25.2% (+297)
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 3, 5:55 PM ET27.7% (+261)
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 5, 9:55 PM ET28.1% (+256)
Less than the spread implies24.5% (+308)
Closing line24.5% (+308)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4647484950Opening line49.5Market move, no reported newsFri 5:55 PM−3Reaction to last week's gameMon 3:55 AM+0.5Closing line47
4647484950Opening line49.5Market move, no reported newsFri 5:55 PM−3Reaction to last week's gameMon 3:55 AM+0.5Closing line47

Final: 62 points, over the closing total of 47.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line49.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 4, 5:55 PM ET-3
Reaction to last week's gameMon Sep 7, 3:55 AM ET+0.5
Closing line47

Every Book · Kentucky side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+9 −110+2903.90 24.5%47Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings+8.5 −112+2853.85 24.9%46.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel+9.5 −115+2753.75 25.5%47.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM+8.5 −110+2903.90 24.5%47.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars+8.5 −109+3004.00 23.9%46.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics+8.5 −110+2903.90 24.5%47.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers+9.5 −109+2953.95 23.6%47.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline+9.5 −110+3064.06 23.7%47Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada+8.5 −110+2853.85 24.8%47Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig+9.5 −106+3064.06 23.7%47Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie+9 −110+2903.90 24.5%47Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS+9 −110+3084.08 23.6%47Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.